宝城期货动力煤早报-20250707

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside space is limited. The domestic demand for thermal coal is strong during the peak summer period, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is gradually depleted, driving the coal price to strengthen slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the rebound of the coal price [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Power Coal Spot - Supply: After the National Safety Production Month ended, coal mines with production suspension and restrictions in the main producing areas resumed production one after another after the rectification was completed, leading to a slight increase in the supply of power coal [5]. - Demand: Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, the temperature in most parts of China will be higher than the same period of the previous year, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwestern region is expected to be more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the precipitation in most parts of Yunnan will be 20% - 50% more, and there is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. - Port Inventory: As of July 3, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [5].