丙烯系列报告：丙烯国内供应与进出口情况

Group 1: Report Summary - This is the second report in the new variety propylene专题 series, analyzing and interpreting the supply side of the propylene industry chain, covering domestic propylene production capacity, supply, production profit, and import and export [4]. - Since 2010, China's propylene production capacity has grown explosively. With the continuous commissioning of PDH and large - scale private refining and chemical integration projects, China has become the world's largest propylene producer, and the industry is moving towards structural adjustment and high - quality development [4]. - China is a net importer of propylene. However, with the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity, the self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the import dependence has decreased [5]. Group 2: Propylene Production Capacity Pattern - From 2010 to 2024, China's propylene production capacity increased from 1650 tons/year to nearly 7000 tons/year. From 2010 - 2018, the growth was driven by coal chemical and PDH processes. Since 2020, although the growth of coal - to - olefins has slowed, PDH capacity has continued to expand, and large - scale private refining and chemical integration projects have been put into operation [12]. - From 2016 - 2024, the main growth in propylene supply came from propane/alkane dehydrogenation and naphtha/light hydrocarbon steam cracking, with capacity increases of about 1750 tons and 1405 tons respectively, accounting for 43% and 34.7% of the total capacity growth [14]. Group 3: Regional and Process - based Production Capacity Distribution - China's propylene production is regionally concentrated and resource - oriented. As of 2024, East China, Shandong, and South China have the largest production capacities, accounting for 28%, 20%, and 18% respectively. Northwest and Northeast China follow, accounting for 16% and 9% respectively. Central and Southwest China have relatively small capacities [16]. - Refining processes are mainly carried out by traditional and local refineries. Coal or methanol - to - propylene enterprises are mainly in the coal - rich Northwest and North and East China for easy methanol transportation. PDH enterprises are concentrated in coastal provinces in North, East, and South China due to the need for imported propane [16]. - As of 2024, naphtha/light hydrocarbon cracking and propane/alkane dehydrogenation are the main processes, with capacities of 2324 tons/year (33.3%) and 2254 tons/year (32.3%) respectively [20]. Group 4: Propylene Supply - China's propylene production has increased year - by - year, from 1845 tons in 2014 to 5341 tons in 2024. The capacity utilization rate increased from 2014 - 2021 but declined after 2021, reaching a low of 77.9% in 2023 due to over - capacity [24]. - Propylene production, operation, and inventory show seasonal characteristics. Production is usually lowest in Q1, recovers in Q2, peaks in Q3, and fluctuates in Q4 [25]. Group 5: Process - based Propylene Supply - As of 2024, naphtha/light hydrocarbon cracking and propane dehydrogenation are the main production processes, with outputs of 1821 tons (34%) and 1484 tons (28%) respectively [28]. Group 6: Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Production profit is a key factor affecting the operating rate of propylene production processes. PDH has the highest profit sensitivity and fastest reaction speed, while coal - to - propylene has medium sensitivity with a lag, and oil - to - propylene has the lowest sensitivity [30][33][36]. - In Q4 2023, high propane prices led to deep losses in the PDH industry, and the operating rate of Chinese PDH plants fell below 60% [33]. Group 7: Propylene Import and Export - China is a net importer of propylene. The import volume reached a peak of 313 tons in 2019 and decreased to 202 tons in 2024, while the export volume remained low at 7 tons [42]. - The import dependence has decreased from 14% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2024, mainly due to the expansion of domestic production capacity [46]. - China mainly imports propylene from South Korea and Japan in Northeast Asia, with South Korea accounting for 74% and Japan 19% in 2024 [47].