股指期货：震荡偏多格局

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Future Outlook: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - Factors to Watch: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - Trend Strategy: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - Cross - variety Strategy: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - Global Stock Index Performance: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - Domestic Index Performance: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - Investor and Fund Data: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]