国泰君安期货-PXPTAMEG基本面数据

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].