原油早报：原油早报：多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - Due to the Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has emerged again. After a sharp decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. Against the backdrop of the divergence between bulls and bears, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly down 0.70% to 497.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the closing price of the day's daytime session to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The concepts of oscillatory and strong/weak only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is weak operation [5]. - The core logic is the combination of geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, and the peak oil - using season, leading to the oscillatory and weak trend of the crude oil futures contract [5].