五矿期货贵金属日报-20250707

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 8931.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3346.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 37.14 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 96.99 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, down 0.55% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8885.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.49%. London gold closed at 3331.90 dollars/ounce, down 0.01%, and London silver closed at 36.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.01%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [5]. Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the US added 147,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, the government employment sub - item in non - farm payrolls was as high as 73,000, much higher than the previous value of 7,000. The previously announced ADP employment population decreased by 33,000, lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Excluding the government employment sub - item, only the education and health services (adding 51,000) and construction (adding 15,000) sectors showed resilience, indicating a weakening labor market [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Expense - On July 3, 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by Trump. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the act would increase the US fiscal deficit by 2.77 trillion dollars in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, leading to greater debt issuance pressure in the second half of the year. As of May, the cumulative issuance of US Treasury bonds this year was only 281.3 billion dollars, a 56.1% year - on - year decrease. The US Treasury cash account balance was only 372.2 billion dollars, far below the recommended 850 billion dollars, creating a financing demand of nearly 500 billion dollars [3]. - The current average interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 3.294%, and the cumulative interest expense this year has reached 776 billion dollars. Net interest expense is the third - largest fiscal expenditure item after social security and medical insurance. If the US Treasury issues more bonds in a high - interest - rate environment, interest expenses will be difficult to control, increasing the deficit and squeezing other fiscal expenditure items, which is the reason for Trump's dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will give way to the sustainable development of US finance. Further monetary easing by the Fed in the second half of the year is certain. The Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but show a more dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [4]. - In the context of the expected easing of Fed monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the expectation of loose US fiscal policy. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 5: Market Data Tables - A table shows the closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and year - on - year changes of various precious metals, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, stock market indices, etc [5]. - Another table presents the key data of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily price increases or decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [8]. - There is also a table about the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on July 4, 2025, including the prices of COMEX and domestic futures, exchange rates, and price differences [50].