国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected [2] - Silver: Continued to soar [2] - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated [2] - Zinc: Traded sideways [2] - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations [2] - Tin: Driven up by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Upside elasticity was limited, and nickel prices were under pressure at low levels [2] - Stainless steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and steel prices recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.88, down 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 777.00, up 0.19%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8919, down 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 8931.00, up 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed compared with the previous day [5]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged at 18,456 kilograms, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2133 kilograms to 1,340,792 kilograms [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity was - 1, and silver trend intensity was 1 [8]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,730, down 1.03%, and the night - session closing price was 79720, down 0.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 17,176 to 100,562, and the position decreased by 8,934 to 215,738 [10]. - Inventory: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,796 tons to 22,307 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 950 tons to 95,275 tons [10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity was 0 [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22410, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 20897 to 153571, and the position increased by 66 to 128000 [13]. - Inventory: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 647 tons to 7246 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 112325 tons [13]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity was 0 [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17295, up 0.29%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 10116 to 24330, and the position decreased by 1206 to 51672 [15]. - Inventory: Shanghai Lead futures inventory remained unchanged at 46439 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 263275 tons [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity was 1 [16]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420, down 0.04%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 16,735 to 57,264, and the position decreased by 923 to 30,442 [18][19]. - Inventory: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 6 tons to 6,882 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,165 tons [19]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity was 0 [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,730. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed compared with previous periods [22][23]. - Industry News: In March, Ontario, Canada, might stop exporting nickel to the US; in April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; an Indonesian nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [23][24][25]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [28]