生猪：博弈情绪增加

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current stage of the market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has continued to strengthen, and the futures market has been repairing the basis. However, the futures price has offered hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the subsequent performance of the spot market should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex and requires comprehensive consideration of factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding behavior. Traders should pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The Henan spot price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 17,440 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - Futures Price: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,720 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the 2509 contract is 41,727 lots, down 5,350 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 77,179 lots, down 2,473 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 15,717 lots, up 5,114 lots, and an open interest of 41,620 lots, down 480 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 7,702 lots, up 1,180 lots, and an open interest of 18,681 lots, up 889 lots [2] - Spread: The basis of the 2509 contract is 875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract's basis is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract's basis is 1,415 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 585 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish sentiment, and 2 indicates the most bullish sentiment [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase and the July - August bullish expectation have influenced the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply in July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and the subsequent spot performance needs to be observed. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are provided [4]