碳酸锂：锂价上方承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure on the upside [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,280, down 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 347,729, a decrease of 73,238; and the open interest was 325,288, down 8,769. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 63,020, down 700; the trading volume was 35,506, a decrease of 1,311; and the open interest was 97,049, down 1,350 [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt volume was 22,880, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Basis: - The basis between the spot and the 2509 contract was -980, up 1,000 from the previous day. - The basis between the spot and the 2511 contract was -720, up 900 from the previous day. - The basis between the 2509 and 2511 contracts was 260, down 100 from the previous day [2]. - Raw Materials and Lithium Salts: - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was priced at 653, up 1 from the previous day. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 62,300, up 200 from the previous day. - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 60,700, up 200 from the previous day [2]. - Downstream Products: - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,705, up 45 from the previous day. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,510, up 50 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. - In June 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 14,600 tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 30% decrease year - on - year. Exports to China were 10,000 tons, a 6% increase month - on - month and a 41% decrease year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 3,016 tons, a 13% increase month - on - month and a 161% increase year - on - year. The export volume of lithium sulfate was 7,684 tons, a 21% decrease month - on - month, all shipped to China. From January to May 2025, Chile shipped 44,700 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 172% increase year - on - year [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].