棉花：关注美国关税政策及影响

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, including domestic and international cotton prices, trading volumes, and the impact of US tariff policies. It also analyzes the current situation of the cotton spot and textile markets [1][2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Data Futures Market - CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.04% daily increase and 13,850 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.51% increase. CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.17% daily increase and 20,070 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.35% increase. ICE US Cotton 12 was at 68.43 cents/pound [1]. - The trading volume of CF2509 was 170,707 lots yesterday, a decrease of 20,256 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 836,329 lots, a decrease of 5,890 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,668 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,872 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,067 yesterday, a decrease of 73, and the effective forecast was 262, a decrease of 4. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 4 [1]. Spot Market - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Hebei was 15,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 75.96 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 3: Market Situation Domestic Cotton Spot - Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with weak downstream purchasing willingness, and the overall basis remained stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes relative to CF09 [2]. Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - The pure cotton yarn market changed little, with still - low demand. The previous increase in cotton yarn prices did not drive speculative restocking, and spinning mill inventories continued to rise. The overall sales of the cotton greige fabric market were weak, with poor sales by weavers and high inventory pressure, and greige fabrics were sold at discounted prices depending on the quantity [2]. US Cotton - ICE cotton futures were closed on Friday due to a US holiday. This week, the market mainly focuses on the impact of US tariff policies on ICE cotton [2]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].