棕榈油：基本面矛盾不明显，国际油价影响大，豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamental contradictions of palm oil are not obvious, and it is greatly affected by international oil prices [1]. - There is insufficient weather speculation for US soybeans, and soybean oil lacks driving forces [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,472 yuan/ton (down 0.07% during the day - session and up 0.12% at night - session), soybean oil主力 at 7,944 yuan/ton (down 0.63% during the day - session and down 0.35% at night - session), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,607 yuan/ton (down 0.12% during the day - session and down 0.05% at night - session). Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,062 ringgit/ton (down 0.71%), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 54.54 cents/pound (down 0.96%) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 494,606 lots (an increase of 13,017 lots) and an open interest of 451,187 lots (a decrease of 12,777 lots). Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 303,880 lots (a decrease of 21,440 lots) and an open interest of 544,238 lots (a decrease of 9,724 lots). Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 215,483 lots (a decrease of 72,964 lots) and an open interest of 323,968 lots (a decrease of 5,275 lots) [1]. - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,510 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (a decrease of 90 yuan/ton), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,650 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,020 dollars/ton (no change) [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 38 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 216 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,135 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 528 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were 0 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 71 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b) Macro and Industry News - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 was estimated to decrease by 4.69%. Production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.68%, while in Sabah it decreased by 11.95%, in Sarawak by 8.98%, and in East Malaysia by 11.24% [2]. - UOB estimated that as of June 30, Malaysia's palm oil production would decrease by 3% - 7%. Sabah was expected to decrease by 10% - 14%, Sarawak by 8% - 12%, and the Malay Peninsula by 2% to an increase of 2% [4]. - Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil's soybean sales in the 2024/25 season had reached 69.8% of the expected output, and in the 2025/26 season had reached 16.4% of the expected output [4]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, compared with 13,959,612 tons in the same period last year [4]. c) Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].