Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent currently. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 0.03% [5] - Spot Price: The analysis involves the market price of rebar, but no specific price data is presented [11] - Basis and Spread: No specific analysis content is provided Important Market Information - On July 4th, the research group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [16] Supply - side Situation - In late June, according to CISA data, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 6.4% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [6][31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, the steel mill inventory decreased by 5.13 tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 1.34 tons week - on - week, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased by 4.17 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week [32] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [23] Fundamental Analysis - In late June 2025, the daily output of national crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous ten - day period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year, the same period last month, the same period last year, and the same period the year before last [31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased, the steel mill inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly [32] 后市展望 - Currently, the contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34]
螺纹周报:钢价逐渐走稳-20250707
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-07 03:09