软商品日报：美元疲软拉抬国际糖价，白糖震荡为主-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - In the sugar market, the 2024/25 sugar production season has ended. China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing areas are beneficial for future production. Internationally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited drought impact in Brazil, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1]. - In the cotton market, due to US - imposed tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton - growing areas are suitable for growth, and most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days ahead of previous years. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1]. Data Summary Price Data - Sugar: The price of US sugar rose from $15.56 on July 2, 2025, to $16.37 on July 3, 2025, with a growth rate of 5.21%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6070 yuan to 6060 yuan, a decline of 0.16%, and in Kunming, it decreased from 5895 yuan to 5880 yuan, a decline of 0.25% [3]. - Cotton: The price of US cotton decreased from $68.64 on July 2, 2025, to $68.43 on July 3, 2025, with a decline of 0.31%. The cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, with a growth rate of 0.26%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 15200 yuan to 15150 yuan, a decline of 0.33% [3]. Spread Data - Sugar: The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 all showed different degrees of change, with the basis of contract 09 having the largest decline of 12.40% [3]. - Cotton: The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 also changed, with the basis of contract 01 having the largest growth rate of 5.58% [3]. Other Data - Import Price: The import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 78.85 to 79.4, with a growth rate of 0.70% [3]. - Profit Space: The sugar import profit decreased from 1802 yuan to 1620.5 yuan, a decline of 10.07% [3]. - Option Data: The implied volatility of sugar and cotton option contracts and the historical volatility of their underlying futures are provided [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23575 to 23520, a decline of 0.23%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10190 to 10140, a decline of 0.49% [3]. Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange and a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange [9].