商品期货早班车-20250707

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on the specific situation of each commodity, such as waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback, selling short at high prices, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Copper: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and high copper prices leading to a need for consolidation. The supply side has low processing fees and slightly increasing domestic inventory. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. - Aluminum: The 2508 contract closed down 0.22% on Friday. Supply is stable with high - load production, while demand has a 1% drop in weekly aluminum product开工率. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices due to weakening price support [2]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract closed down 0.07% on Friday. Supply capacity increased by 400,000 tons, and demand is stable. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and buying long - term call options [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: Prices rebounded last week. Supply is high with a slight decline in weekly output, and demand is expected to increase 2 - 3% in July before entering the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices after the market consensus is reached [2]. - Tin: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and short - term tin ore shortages. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. Black Industry - Rebar Steel: The 2510 contract was flat. The market has a balanced supply - demand situation with low inventory pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and try a 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply - demand is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and set up long positions in the far - month coil - ore ratio [3]. - Coking Coal: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. The trading strategy is to wait [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans were closed on Friday. Supply is loose in the near - term and normal in the far - term, and demand is in line with expectations. The trading strategy is to follow the international cost side, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [4]. - Corn: The 2509 contract declined. The supply - demand is tightening, but wheat substitution and increased imports may suppress prices. The trading strategy is range trading [4][5]. - Sugar: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar had small increases. International sugar is expected to decline, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. The trading strategy is to sell short [5]. - Cotton: ICE cotton was closed on Friday, and Zhengzhou cotton was strong. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices and trade in a range [5]. - Palm Oil: Prices declined slightly on Friday. Supply is decreasing marginally but still high, and demand is increasing. The trading strategy is to focus on production and policies [5]. - Eggs: The 2508 contract was flat. Supply is high, and demand is affected by weather. The trading strategy is range trading [5]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and the trading strategy is range adjustment [5]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [6]. - PVC: The v2509 contract declined 0.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and the trading strategy is to wait [6]. - PTA: PX prices are rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking phase. The trading strategy is to hold PX long positions, do PTA positive spreads, and short processing fees at high prices [6]. - Rubber: The RU2509 contract declined 0.36%. Supply is affected by rain, and demand has some pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and then short after the US tariff policy is clear [6]. - Glass: The fg09 contract declined 0.1%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and the trading strategy is to wait [6][7]. - PP: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7]. - MEG: Supply is high, and inventory is low. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - Styrene: The contract rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7][8]. - Soda Ash: The sa09 contract declined 0.8%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices [8].