Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]
铅周报：沪铅或以震荡趋势运行-20250707
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-07 03:20