甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250707

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].