东海证券晨会纪要-20250707

Group 1 - The "Beautiful America Act" signed by the US President aims to significantly reduce taxes, increase defense spending, and cut social welfare and new energy subsidies, indicating a potential shift in fiscal policy [8][17][18] - The US labor market shows signs of resilience with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, but the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, highlighting underlying weaknesses [16][17][18] - In China, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to synchronize with market-driven forces, impacting industries like photovoltaic, refining, and steel, which may affect upstream raw material prices [8][10] Group 2 - The energy storage industry is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with demand expected to surge in emerging markets, particularly in China, the US, and Europe [11][13][14] - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow significantly, with China's cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 137.9 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.4% [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of core drivers for energy storage installations, including consumption, profitability, and reliability of electricity supply, with extreme weather and geopolitical events increasing backup power demand [12][14] Group 3 - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,472 points, facing resistance at the 3,500-point level, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices experienced declines [27][28] - The gaming sector led the market with a 1.65% increase, while sectors like energy metals and wind power equipment saw declines, indicating sector-specific volatility [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market liquidity and interest rates, with the 10-year Chinese government bond yield declining to 1.6433% [34]