保险配置点位有望突破

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The research value of the scheduled interest rate in July may be around 2%. The decline in the scheduled interest rate may boost insurance premium income, and the adjustment is likely to occur in the third quarter with an expected reduction of 50BP [4][8][9]. - The growth of premium income may increase insurance allocation demand and alleviate the supply pressure of government bonds. The scheduled interest rate cut will also help insurance change its preference for ultra - long - term bond interest rate points, supporting the downward movement of long - end interest rates [4][24][33]. - The bond market in July is expected to continue to be volatile with a bullish bias. The capital side remains optimistic, and institutional behavior may contribute to the strengthening of the bond market. However, the downward space for long - end interest rates may require more catalysts. The recommended investment strategy is a combination of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" [5][114]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Configuration Point Breakthrough - July Scheduled Interest Rate Research Value: The research value is related to three major interest rates (5 - year LPR, 5 - year fixed - deposit rate, and 10 - year Treasury bond yield) and the insurance asset - liability management level. Assuming the adjustment coefficient in July is the average of the first and second quarters, the research value is estimated to be about 2.00% [8]. - Impact of Scheduled Interest Rate Cut on the Bond Market: It may increase insurance premium income, boost insurance allocation demand, and alleviate government bond supply pressure. It also helps insurance change its preference for ultra - long - term bond interest rate points, supporting long - end interest rate decline [4][24][33]. 3.2 Important Matters - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%. The production and new order indexes were in the expansion range, and the price indexes improved [35]. 3.3 Money Market - Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends: From June 30 to July 4, the central bank's net capital injection was - 137.53 billion yuan. After the quarter - end, capital interest rates dropped significantly, and overnight capital interest rates fell below the policy rate [38][39][40]. - Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume: Last week, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.87 billion yuan. The issuance interest rate decreased, with state - owned and joint - stock banks seeing a more significant decline. The 1 - year average issuance interest rate was about 1.60% [46][50]. 3.4 Bond Market - Primary Market: In the first week of July, the net financing of local government bonds was slow. As of July 4, the cumulative net financing of various national debts in 2025 was about 3.58 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 4.41 trillion yuan. The issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 1.73 trillion yuan [57][69]. - Secondary Market: The yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 0.90BP, - 1.40BP, - 1.36BP, 0.02BP, - 0.29BP, and 0.20BP respectively. The spreads between 10 - year Treasury bonds and their sub - active bonds continued to narrow, and the spreads between long - term and ultra - long - term local bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed [71][78][86]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - After the quarter - end, the leveraged trading volume quickly recovered to the 8 - trillion - yuan level. State - owned banks continued to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds within 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly bought policy - financial bonds and local bonds, securities firms reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, and funds were the main buyers of long - term Treasury bonds. The average cost of major trading desks for adding positions was between 1.64% - 1.65% [87][99][102]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, wire rod, and cathode copper futures increased, while the cement price index decreased. The CCFI and BDI indexes declined. Food prices showed mixed trends, and crude oil prices rose. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.15 [111]. 3.7 Market Outlook - The bond market in July is expected to be volatile with a bullish bias. The capital side remains optimistic, and institutional behavior may strengthen the bond market. However, the downward space for long - end interest rates needs more catalysts. The recommended investment strategy is a combination of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" [5][114].