华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250707

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel products are expected to move in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity and operate weakly. The aluminum ingot price is expected to move in a range in the short - term, with attention to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [2][5]. 3) Summary by Content Steel Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown for maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province are also shutting down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity has continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The market is expected to operate in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity [4]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was strong. The US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. After the non - farm data exceeded expectations, the market expects a 93% probability of unchanged interest rates in July, still expecting two rate cuts this year starting from September [3]. - As of last Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [4]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors face different challenges [4]. - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [4]. - The initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season have emerged. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The aluminum price is expected to move in a range in the short - term [5].