发运到港回落，铁矿震荡反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side has seen an increase in recent maintenance, leading to a sequential decline in hot metal production. Based on blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, hot metal production is expected to continue decreasing next week. The supply side shows that both overseas shipments and arrivals decreased sequentially last week, and shipments in July are forecasted to decline sequentially, potentially alleviating inventory pressure slightly. Affected by internal and external policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [1][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3,072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan (2.57%), with a total trading volume of 9,806,031 lots and a total open interest of 3,184,065 lots. - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,201 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (2.56%), with a total trading volume of 3,372,278 lots and a total open interest of 1,595,284 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (2.23%), with a total trading volume of 1,988,565 lots and a total open interest of 639,417 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 839.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-0.94%), with a total trading volume of 6,574,591 lots and a total open interest of 757,780 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1,433 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan (0.81%), with a total trading volume of 142,161 lots and a total open interest of 57,347 lots. [2] Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. Affected by internal and external policies, market sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 723 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton sequentially, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton sequentially. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, recent maintenance increased, causing hot metal production to decline sequentially. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, hot metal production is expected to continue to decrease next week. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a sequential decrease of 0.36 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a sequential decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points; the steel mill profit rate was 59.31%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 14.72 percentage points; the average daily hot metal production was 2.4085 million tons, a sequential decrease of 14,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15,300 tons. - On the supply side, both overseas shipments and arrivals decreased sequentially last week. Shipments in July are expected to decline sequentially, potentially alleviating inventory pressure slightly. Last week, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.3576 million tons, a sequential decrease of 149,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.8823 million tons, a sequential decrease of 178,500 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.999 million tons, a sequential decrease of 110,900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7768 million tons, a sequential decrease of 41,800 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 883,300 tons, a sequential decrease of 67,700 tons. The iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.7872 million tons, a sequential decrease of 222,600 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.9091 million tons, a sequential decrease of 159,000 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.6973 million tons, a sequential decrease of 82,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 878,100 tons, a sequential decrease of 63,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.4859 million tons, a sequential increase of 5,670 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 334,190 tons, a decrease of 4,750 tons. [4][5] Industry News - In response to the news of "emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4th to 15th", Mysteel conducted a follow - up survey on full - process steel enterprises in Tangshan. The manufacturers said they had received the notice. Affected by air quality, they were basically continuing the control in late June. Currently, sintering production was restricted by 30%, and some blast furnaces were not operating at full capacity, with limited impact on overall production. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission was held to study issues such as promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to govern the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, standardize government procurement, bidding, and investment promotion, and strive to promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade and continuously carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipped goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. In addition, Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. [10] Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and iron ore shipments, arrivals, and port inventory. [9][11][13][21][23][28][29][31][32][34][36][38][40][42][44][47][49][50][52][53][55][57]