供给预增需求弱势，胶价或将震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of rubber prices has returned to fundamentals with reduced influence from external geopolitical conflicts. The current rubber supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and the futures price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][84][85] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a slight decline overall. As of July 4, 2025, it closed at 14,005 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.28% for the week [14] - Spot Price: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 19,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,250 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][21] - Basis and Spread: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly shrank. As of July 4, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber slightly declined last week, while the overseas price remained flat [24][27] Important Market Information - Macroeconomic Data: US non - farm payrolls in June significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of a July interest rate cut. China's Caixin Services PMI in June was below expectations, but the China Logistics Prosperity Index continued to rise. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June reached its highest level since August 2022 [8][31] - Automobile Market: In June, China's heavy - truck sales recovered, and new energy vehicle sales increased. The 1 - 5 month cumulative export of Chinese tires increased slightly year - on - year. The inventory of tire enterprises was high, and the start - up rate decreased last week [33][35][53] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [39][44][48] Demand - side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the start - up rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.41%, down 7.64% from the previous week; the start - up rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.75%, down 1.89% from the previous week. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month [53][57][60] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,110 tons to 18,885 tons. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [82] - Demand: Last week, the start - up rate of tire enterprises decreased, downstream factories purchased on demand, and tire inventory reduction was slow. In June, heavy - truck sales recovered, and from January to May, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while China's social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [82] 后市展望 - The price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract fluctuated in a range last week, rising after falling and showing a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, the rubber supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigations, and Sino - US tariff changes [84] Operation Strategy - The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [85]