中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积收跌，红枣跌幅居前-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, and there are concerns in the US employment market [6]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti-involution" policy has driven short-term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a strengthened policy-driven logic. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The June non-farm payrolls in the US were better than expected, but there are concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit [6]. - Domestic: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti-involution" policy has affected domestic commodities [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas, attention should be paid to various risks. Long-term weak US dollar and strategic allocation to non-US dollar assets are recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Metal Markets - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestic assets have structural opportunities [8]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Most financial products are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious metals: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment, with an expected volatile trend [8]. - Shipping: The sentiment has declined, and the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate should be monitored. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black building materials: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly, with most products expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous and new materials: The low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemical Markets - Energy and chemicals: Affected by European extreme weather, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Most products are expected to have a volatile trend, with some showing upward or downward trends [11]. - Agriculture: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven the rebound of agricultural products. The market will continue to pay attention to policies such as the US biodiesel policy [11].