消费预期较好，铅价震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is positive, with the Trump tariff negotiation making progress, the "Great Beauty Act" passed, and the domestic June PMI data rebounding month - on - month. The US dollar continues to be weak, which is beneficial to the lead price. The supply and demand in the fundamentals both increase. The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase month - on - month as refineries resume production. The impact of the mid - year inventory count and closing is lifted, and with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the purchasing of battery enterprises improves, and the inventory remains at a neutral level. With positive macro and micro factors and capital support, the lead price is rising and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Further improvement in consumption is expected to boost the lead price [3][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From June 27th to July 4th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,125 yuan/ton to 17,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,041.5 dollars/ton to 2,057 dollars/ton, an increase of 15.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.39 to 8.41, an increase of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 5.69 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead (PB2508) maintained a strong trend, with the upward momentum slightly slowing down. Affected by positive macro - sentiment, the continuous decline of the US dollar, and the expectation of improved consumption, it finally closed at 17,295 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. On Friday night, it opened high and closed low. The LME lead broke through the 2,050 dollars/ton mark and finally closed at 2,057 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of July 4th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. The downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, mostly through long - term orders, and the spot transactions in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai area were still limited. In terms of inventory, as of July 4th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons. As of July 3rd, the SMM five - region social inventory increased by about 900 tons to 5.69 million tons compared with last Thursday. The strong rise of lead futures prices expanded the basis, increasing the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse, and the inventory is expected to increase further as the current - month delivery approaches, but the increase is expected to be limited due to supply constraints and improved demand [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 4th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged. A recycled lead refinery in the western region with a public capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failure and is expected to complete maintenance in late July. If the equipment is调试 smoothly, it is expected to produce lead normally in August. In June, the electrolytic lead production was 328,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 4.3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year to 342,600 tons. The recycled refined lead production in June was 226,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 12.23% month - on - month and decrease by 0.24% year - on - year to 254,100 tons [8]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, recycled lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][12].