关税隐忧再现，铜价冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices retreated from their highs. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on countries without trade agreements and strong non - farm payrolls in the US led to concerns, a rebound in the US dollar, and a cooling of the expectation of early interest rate cuts this year. The increase in LME inventory eased the squeeze - out sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will correct to confirm support in the short term [2][3][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - LME copper decreased from $9,879/ton on June 27th to $9,852/ton on July 4th, a decline of 0.27%. COMEX copper dropped from 512.5 cents/pound to 506.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.22%. SHFE copper fell from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,730 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.24%. International copper decreased from 71,250 yuan/ton to 70,990 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The LME spot premium dropped from $240.67/ton to $95.35/ton, a decrease of 60.38%. The Shanghai spot premium increased from 110 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [4] - Total inventory increased from 445,288 tons on June 27th to 465,300 tons on July 4th, a rise of 4.49%. LME inventory increased by 4,000 tons (4.38%), COMEX inventory increased by 11,673 short tons (5.58%), SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons (3.73%), and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 1,300 tons (2.06%) [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices retreated from highs due to Trump's tariff plan, strong non - farm payrolls, and an increase in LME inventory. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support. The total global inventory rebounded, which restricted the upward movement of copper prices [8] - Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan raised market concerns. Strong non - farm payrolls boosted the US dollar and dampened the metal market. The US manufacturing industry was in a downturn with inflation risks. China's central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - In terms of supply and demand, the spot TC remained at - 44 dollars/ton. Some mines in Peru faced road blockades, and domestic refined - copper production was restricted. Demand from the power grid and new - energy vehicles was stable, and the domestic market was in a tight - balance state [10] 3. Industry News - In May, Chile's copper production reached 486,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The country approved a law to shorten the mining project approval time [12] - Mines in Peru, such as Las Bambas and Constancia, faced road blockades by non - regular miners, interrupting concentrate transportation [13] - The Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate, but the hope of resuming mining this year is slim [14] - The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased. The transaction volume in the East China market improved slightly, while that in the South China market did not improve significantly. The operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in mid - July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventory, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, including the trends of LME copper price, LME inventory, global visible inventory, etc [19][22][26][30][36][42]