Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 23 to close at 1048.25 cents per bushel, a 2.24% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 8 to close at 2954 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2820 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 38 to 2597 yuan per ton, a 1.48% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 80 to 2490 yuan per ton, a 3.32% increase [4]. - The US soybeans fluctuated and rose during the week, mainly due to the passage and signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US. The provisions related to biodiesel tax will ban the use of raw materials outside North America for the production of 45Z tax credits for biofuel production, which is beneficial to expanding the demand for US soybean oil. Soybean meal is constrained by the expectation of loose supply, and the spot price is under pressure with limited rebound space. The Dalian soybean meal fluctuated narrowly at a low level during the week, mainly limited by the near - term supply pressure and supported by the expectation of tight supply in the long - term. The rapeseed meal in Canada is generally stronger than soybean meal due to less precipitation in the rapeseed production area [4][7]. - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US is beneficial to increasing the demand for US soybean oil and supporting the strength of US soybeans. The cumulative precipitation in the production area in the next two weeks is slightly higher than the normal level, but there is an expectation of less precipitation in the Midwest from the 13th to the 20th. Continuously monitor the weather changes. The less precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed production area and poor soil moisture support the rapeseed meal. The domestic soybean meal is still in the process of inventory accumulation, and the overall spot supply is loose. The soybeans for the October - December shipping schedule in China have not been purchased yet, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter. Although there are signs of easing in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, there may be repeated situations. Pay attention to the procurement dynamics of US soybeans. In addition, a report on the adjustment of the new - year US soybean balance sheet is about to be released. Wait for the guidance of the report. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Contract | July 4 | June 27 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1048.25 | 1025.25 | 23.00 | 2.24% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 465.00 | 456.00 | 9.00 | 1.97% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 448.00 | 449.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.22% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 96.10 | 62.29 | - 158.40 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2954.00 | 2946.00 | 8.00 | 0.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2597.00 | 2559.00 | 38.00 | 1.48% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 357.00 | 387.00 | - 30.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 134.00 | - 146.00 | 12.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US Department of Agriculture's end - of - June report was released, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overall neutral. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations. One reason is the concern about Sino - US trade frictions, and US farmers switched to other crops. Another reason is that there was excessive precipitation in the non - core southern regions of the US, the sowing progress was slow, and some areas abandoned sowing, resulting in a slight decline in the planting area. The quarterly inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels. The large quarterly inventory suppresses the near - term contracts, while the long - term contracts are supported by the decline in the area [8]. - According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of June 29, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% in the same period last year. As of that week, the emergence rate of US soybeans was 94%, compared with 90% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 95%. As of that week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 17%, compared with 8% in the previous week, 18% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16%. The pod - setting rate of US soybeans was 3%, the same as in the same period last year and a five - year average of 2%. As of the week of July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production area is generally slightly higher than the average level, but there is an expectation of reduced precipitation from July 13th to 19th [8][9]. - As of the week of June 26, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 462,000 tons, compared with 403,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year were 49.94 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.2%, compared with 96.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 year in that week were 239,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 1.588 million tons, compared with 1.376 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - The USDA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons, compared with 6.07 million tons in the previous month and 5.75 million tons in the same period last year. As of now, the cumulative crushing volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year has increased by 5.84% year - on - year, generally in line with the annual expectation [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in the US was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. For reference, the average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton, equivalent to $6.12 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.35 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel, compared with $10.66 per bushel a week ago [10]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 13.93 million tons, up from the previous expectation of 13.83 million tons. The StoneX institution raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 168.25 million tons [10]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons from the previous week and 1.0002 million tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 361,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 3.323 million tons, a decrease of 795,600 tons from the previous week and 784,000 tons less than the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.088 million tons, an increase of 255,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0141 million tons more than the same period last year. As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 165,740 tons, including 49,980 tons of spot trading and 115,760 tons of forward trading, compared with an average daily trading volume of 140,180 tons in the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 187,670 tons, compared with 195,700 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, compared with 2.4878 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.91 days, compared with 7.75 days in the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in April dropped to 829 million pounds. In March, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 832 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest biodiesel raw material in the US [13]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 23rd to 27th was 472.58 reais per ton, compared with 493.39 reais per ton in the previous week. During that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1537.75 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5757.33 reais per ton [13]. - Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina shows that in the first six months of this year, Argentina exported a record 64.5 million tons of grains and their derivatives, and the export volume in June also broke the monthly export record. Exporters rushed to export before the increase in export tax rates for many key agricultural products on July 1 [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects the soybean planting area in India this year to decrease by about 5%. The association said that this is mainly because many farmers switched to other alternative crops such as corn, red millet, and cotton, as soybeans had poor returns due to low market prices in the past two consecutive years. SOPA Executive Director DN Pathak said: "The overall decline may be around 5%, but a better estimate can only be obtained after sowing is completed." The association said that the soybean planting area last year was about 11.748 million hectares [14]. - According to foreign news, data released by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of Argentina shows that as of the week of June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 1.1031 million tons, and the export industry purchased 576,200 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 49,900 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total sales of soybeans of all years in that week were 1.7866 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 64.7278 million tons. As of June 25, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 soybeans was 5.691 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [14]. - Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of the week of June 29, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 47.16% from the previous week to 173,500 tons, compared with 117,900 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared with 6.0339 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of June 29, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 1.2112 million tons [15]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in its weekly crop report that Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous year [15]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, etc., which visually show the price trends, trading data, and crop growth - related data of soybeans and soybean meal [16][18][24][41].
豆粕周报：美豆受政策提振上涨，连粕窄幅震荡-20250707
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 05:51