Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the liquidity environment is currently stable and loose, with the first week of July being the most favorable window for liquidity in the third quarter. Factors such as tax payments and government bond issuances later in July may cause seasonal fluctuations, but overall liquidity is expected to remain stable [3][11][18] - The report indicates that the interbank deposit rates have reached a downtrend, with the one-year NCD rates stabilizing around 1.6%. The expected range for these rates is between 1.4% and 1.8%, with a midpoint of 1.6% [16][19] - The report suggests that public fund positions and durations have risen to high levels, indicating a lack of incremental funds to support further increases. This leads to a strategy of "riding the tiger," where institutions are cautious about making significant changes to their positions [17][18] Group 2 - The report reiterates that if long-term interest rates decline towards the end of the third quarter, it may lead to a "central downtrend market." However, if this occurs earlier, it is likely to be a "trading market." The main themes for the bond market in the third quarter are liability repair and yield recovery [4][20][21] - The report advises institutions to hold positions and wait for potential gains, particularly during the liquidity easing period in early July and the policy negotiation period at the end of the month. The one-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.3% [5][23] - The report highlights that a significant downward breakthrough in long-term rates requires an "inverted yield curve" scenario, where major banks or the central bank provide incremental buying support for short-term bonds, allowing the one-year government bond yield to drop below 1.3% [5][23][24]
流动性周报20250706：策略选择“骑虎难下”？-20250707
China Post Securities·2025-07-07 05:52