Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upward. The main reason was that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the comprehensive management of the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development path, which greatly boosted market confidence. The supply side remained weak with a significant drop in Xinjiang's operating rate, limited recovery in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season, and some device shutdowns in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. On the demand side, polysilicon prices rebounded but with limited transactions; silicon wafer prices continued to decline but might be supported by the rebound of upstream silicon materials; photovoltaic cell manufacturers had a very low operating rate and produced according to orders, and prices might stabilize; the component market had few new orders this month, and prices were chaotic. The "anti - involution" meeting was expected to improve the supply - demand balance of the component market in the long - term. The industrial chain was expected to remain weak in the short - term but improve in the long - term. Social inventory rose to 552,000 tons last week, and the spot market rebounded with the boost of the financial and economic commission meeting [2][5][8]. - Overall, the "anti - involution" meeting of the financial and economic commission emphasized the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, boosting market sentiment. China's photovoltaic industry chain might undergo a long - term structural transformation. The supply - demand balance of the downstream component market was expected to improve. The industrial chain prices were expected to remain weak in the short - term but improve in the long - term. Technically, the futures price had basically completed bottom - building and entered a stable upward stage, and was expected to continue the upward trend in the short - term [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 4th | June 27th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 7980.00 | 8030.00 | - 50.00 | - 0.62% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 8750.00 | 8150.00 | 600.00 | 7.36% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 8500.00 | 8100.00 | 400.00 | 4.94% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9050.00 | 8700.00 | 350.00 | 4.02% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10450.00 | 10400.00 | 50.00 | 0.48% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 30.00 | 1.00 | 3.33% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.2 | 54.2 | 1 | 1.85% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro Aspect: The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held the second - quarter regular meeting in 2025. The meeting was more positive about the economic situation compared with the first - quarter meeting, but also emphasized difficulties such as insufficient domestic demand, low - level and continuous operation of prices, and many risk hidden dangers. The main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remained unchanged, and the central bank would continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance [6]. - Supply - demand Aspect: As of July 4th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 72,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.98%. The total number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon was 228, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 28.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 93, a month - on - month decrease of 3; in Yunnan, it was 30, a month - on - month increase of 13; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 39 in total, a month - on - month increase of 3; in Inner Mongolia, it was 27, the same as the previous month. On the demand side, polysilicon prices rebounded but with limited transactions; silicon wafer prices continued to decline but might be supported by the rebound of upstream silicon materials; photovoltaic cell manufacturers had a very low operating rate and produced according to orders, and prices might stabilize; the component market had few new orders this month, and prices were chaotic. The "anti - involution" meeting was expected to improve the supply - demand balance of the component market in the long - term [6][7]. - Inventory Aspect: As of July 4th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 552,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts of the exchange continued to decline. As of July 4th, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped to 51,700 lots, equivalent to 258,000 tons. After the exchange issued new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the new standard were actively registered and stored, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory had weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. Industry News - The 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focused on accelerating the high - quality development of the photovoltaic industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would strengthen macro - guidance and industry governance, and help enterprises solve problems. Since 2024, the central government has paid increasing attention to "involution - type" competition. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1st pointed out that it was necessary to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with the law, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. In addition, domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises planned to cut production by 30% starting from July [9]. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon spot prices, and organic silicon spot prices [11][12][13][14][15][16]
反内卷会议落幕，工业硅企稳反弹
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-07 05:59