黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250707

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on gold and silver futures from July 7th to July 11th, 2025, covering market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data for both metals [1][2] Gold Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term fluctuations are driven by the dollar and Fed policy expectations, while long - term factors like de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is upward, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Judgment Logic: Last week, the gold price was mainly influenced by the dollar and Fed policy expectations. Dollar weakness and rising rate - cut expectations drove the price up in the first half of the week, while better - than - expected non - farm data led to a price drop in the second half. Geopolitical risks and inflation data provided intermittent support. In the long run, de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases (95% of central banks plan to increase holdings in 2025) support the price, but short - term data fluctuations and position adjustments should be watched [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 remains bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on Shanghai gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price differences through charts [19][21][23] Silver Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend. Although short - term fluctuations are intensifying, silver shows an upward - moving central tendency due to its "safe - haven + industrial" dual attributes. It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend [31] - Judgment Logic: Last week, silver prices fluctuated upward. Bullish factors included weakened dollar credit, Fed rate - cut expectations, resilient industrial demand, and technical breakthroughs. Bearish factors were better - than - expected non - farm data delaying rate cuts and high silver inventories (global visible inventory of 15,523 tons). Despite short - term volatility, the upward - moving central tendency remains unchanged [31] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows data on Shanghai silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price differences through charts [39][41][43]