宝城期货资讯早班车-20250707

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a constant - price quarterly - on - quarterly rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the Non - manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.5%, up from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, various financial and economic indicators showed different trends, such as changes in social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, financial institution RMB loans, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, retail sales of consumer goods, export and import values [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - In June, the national futures market volume was 740 million lots, with a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively. From January to June, the cumulative volume was 40.76 billion lots, and the cumulative turnover was 339.73 trillion yuan, up 17.82% and 20.68% year - on - year respectively [2] - There were reports of the US resuming exports of EDA software, ethane, aircraft engines and other products to China. After the China - US economic and trade talks in London, both sides are implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [2][14] - Experts believe that in June, China's economic growth momentum remained stable, with CPI expected to rise slightly year - on - year and PPI likely to remain at a low level [2][17] - In June, the China Commodity Price Index was 110.8 points, up 0.5% month - on - month, indicating a stable and improving commodity market [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations were at a stalemate, with busy days ahead. If no agreement was reached by August 1st, tariffs would return to the April level [3][21] Metals - Precious metals were the most active in the futures market in the past six months. Gold futures' turnover in the first half of 2025 exceeded that of the whole of last year, up 149% year - on - year. Gold options' trading volume soared from 28.64 billion yuan in the first half of last year to 101.787 billion yuan this year, up 252.64% year - on - year [5] - India re - classified the import of colloidal precious metals and their compounds from "free" to "restricted", causing disruptions in the electronics manufacturing supply chain [5] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In the first five months of 2025, China's steel industry was stable, with a 5.2% year - on - year increase in steel production. Industrial steel demand, especially in the automotive and home - appliance manufacturing sectors, increased significantly [6] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [6] - In late June, the price of coke dropped 4.36% month - on - month to 1,096.4 yuan/ton, hitting a record low; the price of rebar dropped 0.95% month - on - month to 3,080.7 yuan/ton, also hitting a record low [6] Energy and Chemicals - High - temperature weather in many parts of China led to a rapid increase in power consumption. On July 4th, the national maximum power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, up about 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts from the same period last year [6] - OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day next month, exceeding expectations, as it tries to regain market share during the summer [7] - Malaysia's national oil company will drill three oil wells in Suriname's offshore Block 52 [8] - Saudi Arabia raised the prices of its main crude grades for Asian buyers next month, showing confidence in the market [8] - Qatar set the shipping price of August marine crude oil at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the price of land - based crude oil at a premium of $1.30 per barrel [8] - Saudi set the price of Arabian Light crude oil for the US in August at a premium of $3.90 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index and for Northwest Europe at a premium of $4.65 per barrel over ICE Brent [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will further increase oil supply in September [9] Agricultural Products - As of now, the cumulative purchase of wheat in China has exceeded 50 million tons. The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration expects the purchase of new - season summer grain to be about 100 million tons, with wheat accounting for over 85 million tons [10] - In the past month, the prices in the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly. At the beginning of July, the price of live chickens fell below 3 yuan for the second time this year, and the price of chicks dropped by more than half [10] - In late June, the price of live pigs rose 2.82% month - on - month to 14.6 yuan/kg [11] - In late June, the price of corn rose 1.33% month - on - month to 2,370.1 yuan/ton, hitting a new high since mid - July 2024 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion yuan from the open market [13] - On July 4th, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.9 billion yuan [13] Key News - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government would start sending letters to trade partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would likely take effect on August 1st [14] - The EU accepted price commitments from 34 Chinese enterprises in the anti - dumping case of imported brandy, and these enterprises will not be subject to anti - dumping duties if they meet the commitment conditions [14] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiations is almost completed, and China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported brandy from the EU starting July 5th for a period of 5 years [15] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit and proposed to establish a China - BRICS New Quality Productivity Research Center and a "Golden Heron" Excellence Scholarship [15] - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [16] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's research team called on local governments to use real - estate regulation policies autonomously to stabilize the real - estate market [16] - The market expects that new RMB loans and social financing in June will increase month - on - month [16] - Local governments are issuing new special bonds to pay off overdue accounts to enterprises. Qinghai plans to issue about 11.7 billion yuan of local government bonds in July, with 1.42 billion yuan for debt repayment [18] - Qilu Bank's convertible bonds were triggered for mandatory redemption [18] - Many local state - owned enterprises and financial institutions are taking measures to prevent and resolve debt risks, such as reforming financing platforms, reducing high - cost non - standard debts, etc. [18][19] - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered its forecast for US Treasury yields, expecting the 2 - year and 10 - year yields to drop to 3.45% and 4.20% by the end of the year respectively [20] - In the euro - zone bond market, the yield of French 5 - year Treasury bonds exceeded that of Italian bonds for the first time since 2005 [20] - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen [20] - There are various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, shareholding changes, bond redemptions, and credit rating changes [22][23] Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market were generally stable with a slight decline, and Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The money market was loose, and money prices continued to fall [24] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell. The Wande Real - Estate Bond 30 Index rose 0.05%, and the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index was flat [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% to 447.46 points, with a trading volume of 75.05 billion yuan. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.25% to 212.72 points [25] - On July 4th, most money - market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term rates also fell across the board [26][27] - The weighted winning yields of 7 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.5302% and 1.6188% respectively, and the winning rate of the 2 - year fixed - rate bond "25 Jinchu Qingfa 02" issued by the Import - Export Bank of China was 1.26% [27] - Inter - bank and bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate quotes mostly fell, and European bond yields showed mixed trends [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1652 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 41 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, down 12 basis points from the previous trading day [29] - In late New York trading, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies showed different trends [29] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research team believes that the re - evaluation of banks is not over, and a dumbbell - shaped strategy of bank - like convertible bonds, small - cap growth convertible bonds, and low - price low - volatility convertible bonds is still effective [30][31] - Guosheng Securities' fixed - income research team believes that ultra - long - term credit bonds still have room for yield decline, but the operation requirements for trading desks are high [31] - CITIC Construction Investment's chief economist Huang Wentao believes that in the second half of the year, the external situation will ease, and Hong Kong stocks will become an important gateway for China's technological rise [31] - CITIC Securities believes that since the second quarter of 2025, the bond market has been in a stalemate, and medium - and long - term credit bonds have better cost - effectiveness [31] - CICC's fixed - income research team believes that the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill on the US deficit and economy this year is limited, and US Treasury yields may oscillate and decline [32] Today's Reminder - On July 7th, 182 bonds will be listed, 91 bonds will be issued, 77 bonds will require payment, and 349 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] 4. Stock Market News - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po said that the Hong Kong stock market is booming in 2025, with about 200 IPO applications received so far, double the number at the beginning of the year. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is promoting the listing of more theme - based ETFs [35] - CITIC Securities' strategy team believes that the current market environment is similar to that at the end of 2014, and the rotation of non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and the military industry may be the main theme during the interim - report season [35] - Many star private equity funds are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. For example,淡水泉 is optimistic about the technology sector, and Chongyang Investment focuses on innovation and competitive industries [36] - Last week, the A - share market had a good start in July, and the market is expected to show an oscillating upward trend. The interim - report season is approaching, and investors are focusing on fundamental - based investment opportunities [36][37] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, mostly showing good profitability. Many companies have attracted institutional research after disclosing their forecasts [37] - Since the establishment of the stock repurchase, increase, and re - loan program, 688 listed companies have received bank support, with a total loan limit of over 135.86 billion yuan. A - share companies are increasing dividend payments [37] - Well - known fund managers have adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [38]