基础化工行业周报：中央财经委员会会议再提“反内卷”，光伏材料行业格局将迎优化-20250707

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Insights - The central government has reiterated the need to combat "involution" in the industry, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to optimize the market structure and eliminate low-efficiency production [1][22][23] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a surge in installed capacity due to a "rush to install" phenomenon, with a significant increase in new installations expected to taper off in the latter half of the year [2][24] - Industrial silicon prices have shown a downward trend but have recently seen a slight recovery due to production cuts in major factories [3][25][26] - The organic silicon market has faced price fluctuations, with limited new capacity expected in the future, indicating potential stabilization [4][31][34] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The central government emphasizes the need for market mechanisms to phase out inefficient capacities and prevent price wars in the photovoltaic sector [1][22] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 1.08 billion kilowatts, accounting for 30% of China's total power generation capacity [2][24] 2. Price Trends - As of July 4, 2025, industrial silicon prices are at 0.90 million yuan per ton, down 21.9% year-to-date but have recently increased from a low of 0.85 million yuan per ton [3][25] - The average price of organic silicon is 1.08 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 16.9% decrease since the beginning of the year [4][31] 3. Investment Recommendations - Suggested investments include upstream oil and gas companies, leading chemical firms, and new materials related to semiconductors, OLEDs, wind power, and lithium batteries [5]