银河期货原油期货早报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - Related News: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - Logic Analysis: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - Logic Analysis: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - Related News: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - Trading Strategy: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - Related News: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - Related News: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - Logic Analysis: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - Related News: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - Logic Analysis: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - Related News: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - Logic Analysis: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - Trading Strategy: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - Related News: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - Logic Analysis: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - Related News: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - Logic Analysis: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - Related News: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - Logic Analysis: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - Related News: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - Logic Analysis: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - Trading Strategy: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - Related News: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - Logic Analysis: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - Related News: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - Logic Analysis: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - Related News: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - Logic Analysis: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - Market Review: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - Related News: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - Logic Analysis: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - Related News: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - Related News: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - Trading Strategy: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - Market Review: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - Related News: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - Trading Strategy: Not provided in the report. Log - Market Review: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - Related News: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - Logic Analysis: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - Market Review: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - Related News: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - Logic Analysis: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - Related News: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - Logic Analysis: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - Related News: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - Logic Analysis: BR