贵金属数据日报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually increase in the long - term. Silver prices are generally strong but may not sustain a unilateral upward trend. It is recommended to allocate more on dips for gold in the long - run [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On July 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3342.39/oz, London silver spot at $36.85/oz, COMEX gold at $3351.90/oz, and COMEX silver at $37.04/oz. Compared to July 3, gold prices decreased by about 0.6% while silver prices had a 0.2% increase in London spot and 0.0% in COMEX [3] - Price Spreads and Ratios: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on July 4 was - 2.28 yuan/g with an 18.8% increase from July 3. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 86.88, a - 0.2% change [3] Position Data - COMEX Gold Positions: As of July 3, non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61073 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 195004 contracts. Compared to July 2, non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, short positions increased by 1.89%, and net long positions decreased by 2.81% [3] - COMEX Silver Positions: Non - commercial long positions on July 3 were 84491 contracts, short positions were 21544 contracts, and net long positions were 62947 contracts. Compared to July 2, long positions decreased by 5.06%, short positions decreased by 1.26%, and net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3] - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF - SPDR held 947.66 tons and silver ETF - SLV held 14868.73549 tons on July 3, with a 0.00% change in gold and a 0.15% increase in silver compared to July 2 [3] Inventory Data - SHFE Inventories: On July 4, SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kg, a 16.25% increase from July 3, and SHFE silver inventory was 1339746.00 kg, a - 0.08% change [3] - COMEX Inventories: COMEX gold inventory on July 3 was 36785583 troy ounces, a - 0.71% change, and COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 troy ounces, a - 0.18% change [3] Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - Exchange Rates: The USD/CNY central parity rate on July 4 was 7.15, a 0.02% change from July 3 [3] - Interest Rates and Stock Market: The US dollar index on July 3 was 97.12, a 0.35% increase from July 2. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, a 2.65% increase, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, a 1.16% increase [3] Market News and Analysis - Market News: The US House of Representatives passed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and President Trump signed it into law on July 4. China and the US are implementing the outcomes of the London economic and trade talks. India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the EU - US trade negotiation will continue [3] - Market Analysis: On July 4, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 0.22% at 777.06 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 0.59% at 8919 yuan/kg. Short - term gold prices are pressured by strong US non - farm data and improved risk appetite, but supported by tariff uncertainties. Silver prices are strong but may not sustain an upward trend due to factors like slowed demand [3]