冠通期货热点评论：“大美丽法案”通过对大宗商品的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The passage of the "Great Beauty" Act may serve as a relay for the "anti-involution" action, further boosting commodity prices. It can be observed from both macro - aggregate and structural - variety dimensions. The act will have different impacts on the economy, inflation, and various commodity prices in the short and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Content Event Summary - On July 4, 2025, US President Trump signed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill into law. The bill passed the House of Representatives on July 3 with 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was approved by the Senate on July 1. It is a landmark legislative agenda after Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, covering corporate tax cuts, personal and family tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, compression of Medicaid, and cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1] Impact on the Macro - Aggregate - Globally, the "Great Beauty" Act's measures such as raising the debt ceiling and corporate tax cuts will boost US economic growth and inflation in the short term but damage US credit and increase the possibility of stagflation in the long term. It will also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Asset prices will show a weak dollar, rising US Treasury yields and US stocks, and commodities will benefit in the short term. Domestically, the act is expected to support the rebound of commodity prices [2] Impact on Structural Varieties - Gold: Benefited from short - term dollar weakness and long - term US credit weakening, but the slowdown of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations weakens the increase in gold prices [4] - New - energy - related Commodities: Measures like abolishing new - energy tax credits in the act will hit the terminal demand of the new - energy industry, reducing the industrial demand for silver, copper, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. [4] - Traditional Energy (Crude Oil): It will benefit in the short term but face long - term supply increases due to policies in the act, showing a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [4] - Agricultural Products: The impact is less than that on industrial products. The cut to the SNAP will suppress short - term consumer demand and indirectly reduce the demand for agricultural products [4]