金属周期品高频数据周报：5月电解铝产能利用率创2012年有统计数据以来新高水平-20250707

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - In May 2025, the electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a record high since 2012 [3] - The report highlights a positive correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate differential and the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent policy adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential in May 2025 was -5.6 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][21] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for June 2025 was 49.12, up 0.07% from the previous month [21] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late June, the average daily crude steel production of key enterprises decreased by 0.88% [24] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.29%, down 0.54 percentage points [42] - The average price of rebar was 3180 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.91% [42] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20750 CNY/ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [11] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1342.99 points, down 1.92% [4] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [4] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio was 37.44% and 69.40%, respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" [5]