冠通期货资讯早间报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of international and domestic futures, important macro - economic and industry - related news, and the trends and investment outlooks of financial markets at home and abroad. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Trends - International precious metal futures rose slightly, with COMEX gold futures up 0.11% at $3346.5 per ounce (weekly gain of 1.79%) and COMEX silver futures up 0.14% at $37.135 per ounce (weekly gain of 2.1%) [2] - International oil prices declined, with the US oil main contract down 0.75% at $66.5 per barrel (weekly gain of 1.5%) and the Brent oil main contract down 0.42% at $68.51 per barrel (weekly gain of 2.56%) [3] - London base metals closed lower, with LME nickel down 1.24% at $15260 per ton (weekly gain of 0.1%), LME copper down 1.03% at $9852 per ton (weekly loss of 0.26%), and LME zinc down 0.55% at $2735.5 per ton (weekly loss of 1.57%) [3] - Most domestic futures main contracts fell, with butadiene rubber down over 2%, 20 - number rubber (NR) down over 1%, and soda ash, rubber, and fuel oil down nearly 1%. Styrene (EB), cotton, rapeseed meal, cotton yarn, and caustic soda rose slightly [3] Important News Macroeconomic News - As of July 4, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 98.02 points compared to the previous period, and the China Export Containerized Freight Composite Index fell 1.9% [5] - Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1 [6] - After the China - US London economic and trade talks, both sides confirmed details of implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and consolidating the Geneva talks results. The two teams are accelerating the implementation of relevant results [6] - Maersk estimates that the average effective tariff rate for goods shipped to the US is 21%, lower than the peak of 54% before the US suspended reciprocal tariffs in April [7] - In June, the national futures trading market turnover was 739579418 lots, with a trading volume of 527934.14 billion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively [7] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiation is basically completed, pending the EU's political will [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and will supervise its preparations [11] - OPEC's oil production increased in June after the production - increase agreement, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase and Iraq's production below the target. OPEC + agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August [11] Metal Futures - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association requested the government to keep the mining quota validity period at three years [13] - In June, Chile's copper exports were 150,295 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,126,625 tons. Shipments to China were 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively [15] - Due to frequent train derailments in South Africa, the manganese ore reserves shipped to China in July decreased [15] Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang, emphasizing the importance of promoting the stable and high - quality development of the real estate market [17] - In late June 2025, the national daily crude steel output was 2.75 million tons (down 0.9% month - on - month), pig iron output was 2.38 million tons (up 0.3% month - on - month), and steel output was 4.21 million tons (up 1.3% month - on - month) [17] - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory at 35 ports in China reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from the previous week [17] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The total urban inventory this week was 7.2366 million tons, up 81,400 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [20] Agricultural Product Futures - In June, the global food price index rose 0.5% month - on - month, and the global grain output in 2025 is expected to reach 2.925 billion tons, up 0.5% from the previous estimate [22] - Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 4.69% [22] - As of the week of July 4, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head [22] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, higher than the estimate [22] Financial Market Finance - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is booming, with about 200 IPO applications received, double the number at the beginning of the year [24] - The market environment now resembles that at the end of 2014, and sectors like non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and military industries may be the focus during the interim report season [25] - Many star private equity firms are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. They are optimistic about technology - related investment opportunities [25] - Last week, A - shares had a good start in July. The market is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention is paid to the interim report season [26] - As of July 6, 54 A - share listed companies disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, showing good profitability [26] - As of July 6, 688 listed companies received bank loans for stock repurchase and increase, with a total loan limit exceeding 135.86 billion yuan [26] - Well - known fund managers adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [28] - Huadian New Energy will be subscribed for on July 7, with an expected fundraising of about 15.801 billion yuan [28] Industry - Shenzhen introduced measures to support the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry and set up a 5 - billion - yuan private equity fund [29] - As of now, the national wheat purchase has exceeded 50 million tons, and the expected new - season summer grain purchase is about 100 million tons [29] - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan, and most products had positive returns [29] - Guangdong issued a guidance on resolving historical issues of real estate registration on state - owned construction land [30] - The Hangzhou Bay Embodied Intelligence Innovation Center was launched, simulating six types of industrial scenarios [31] - Chongqing issued policies to support the high - quality development of the science and technology film and television industry, with subsidies of up to 10 million yuan [31] - In the past month, the prices of the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly [31] Overseas - The 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit opened in Rio de Janeiro, covering six major topics [32] - Putin proposed building an independent settlement and custody system and expanding local - currency settlement within BRICS [32] - Musk said his new party will participate in elections next year [33] - South Korea's special inspection team requested the court to detain former President Yoon Suk - yeol [35] - In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight economic recovery [35] International Stock Markets - CFRA Research raised the target price of the S&P 500 index, expecting it to reach 6850 points in 12 months [36] - US stock funds had a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, but Bank of America warns of a bubble risk in the US stock market [36] - After Musk announced the new party, Azoria postponed the listing of its Tesla ETF [36] - Jane Street Group was banned from the Indian market, and 48.4 billion Indian rupees (about 4 billion yuan) of illegal income will be confiscated [36] Commodities - In the first half of the year, the national futures market was active, with double - digit growth in trading volume. Gold led the commodity futures market, and precious metals accounted for 17.61% of the national market turnover [37] Bonds - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen for African infrastructure and education [39] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's June foreign exchange reserves, Germany's May industrial output, etc. [41] - Events include 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expiring in the Chinese central bank's open market, and the implementation of the rules for program trading in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges on July 7 [43]