“反内卷”政策下，检测服务公司盈利性走势如何？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on comprehensive testing leaders with clear internal operational turning points and high-quality leaders in sectors with clear demand recovery [5][37]. Core Insights - The testing service industry is transitioning from a high growth phase to a stable growth phase with a projected market size of approximately 487.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 4.4% [5][18]. - The number of testing institutions has decreased to 53,057, marking a 1.4% decline year-on-year, the first decline in history [5][18]. - The report highlights the impact of the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to stabilize the gross profit margins of testing institutions [5][9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The domestic testing market experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.6% from 2017 to 2021, but is expected to slow to about 6.0% from 2022 to 2024 [11][13]. - The number of practitioners in the industry is around 1.55 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [18]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the price competition pressure is particularly evident in government-related testing (environmental and food testing), real estate and infrastructure testing, and automotive testing, where downstream demand is decreasing [11][22]. - Major companies like Guojian Group and Guangdian Measurement have seen significant declines in gross profit margins in environmental and food testing compared to 2020 [11][22]. Operational Strategies - Testing leaders are shifting from a phase of aggressive expansion to a focus on efficiency and cost control, with a reported average gross profit margin of 42.4% for 15 listed testing companies in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [11][22]. - Companies are actively controlling employee growth and capital expenditures on new equipment, indicating a strategic pivot towards internal cost reduction and business structure adjustment [11][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on comprehensive testing leaders with clear operational turning points, particularly Guangdian Measurement, and high-quality leaders in sectors with clear demand recovery, such as Su Shi Testing [5][37]. - Other companies to watch include Huace Testing, Xince Standard, and Puni Testing, which are expected to benefit from internal management reforms and market conditions [5][37].