纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, and the glass futures market is also in an oscillatory trend. Due to the weak fundamentals of both industries, including high inventory, high production capacity, and subdued downstream demand, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a weak oscillation. Last week, the market oscillated. On July 2nd, it rebounded due to policy and sentiment but dropped the next day. The industry's fundamentals are weak with high inventory and capacity, and the downstream glass industry's production cut expectations suppress demand. The overall supply is ample, and the price is pressured by the glass industry. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash industry's high operating rate led to unchanged supply, while downstream glass demand was low. Without capacity adjustment or demand recovery, the futures price may oscillate weakly. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The industry fundamentals remain weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Related Data Situation - The report lists data such as China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 77.1 (more bearish), the capital energy is 78.3 (significant capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 92.7 (high risk of market reversal) [22]. Glass Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass market is in an oscillatory trend. Last week, the float glass price oscillated. The industry's operating rate was over 75%, and the production was 110.34 tons, a slight increase. Although the price in some areas rose slightly, the overall market focused on inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persists, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected that the price will oscillate with limited rebound space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [30]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic 5mm float glass market was regionally differentiated. The futures price rose slightly due to sentiment but was restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It was expected to continue oscillating, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The float glass price oscillated last week. The market's core is still inventory reduction. High inventory pressure continues, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - Related Data Situation - The report lists data such as China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [35][40][42]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 98.8 (more bearish), the capital energy is 40.1 (slight capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 97.5 (high risk of market reversal) [46].