中原期货晨会纪要-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is expected to have increased volatility in July, with the pricing theme likely revolving around "domestic policy formulation + interim report performance disclosure + escalating external changes". The market may see a shift in market - cap style towards mid - cap stocks, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate steadily upwards [17]. - Different sectors have different trends. For example, the agricultural product market has mixed trends, with peanuts in a weak supply - demand situation, and sugar facing import pressure; the energy - chemical sector has varying fundamentals, such as the lack of strong support for caustic soda and the inventory reduction of urea; the industrial metal sector has different outlooks for different metals, and the overall steel price may face a callback pressure; the option - financial sector shows an upward - oscillating structure for the stock index, and specific strategies are proposed for option trading [11][13][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 344.11 (0.774%), the Nasdaq Index rose 207.97 (1.020%), the S&P 500 rose 51.93 (0.834%), the Hang Seng Index fell 153.88 (- 0.639%), and SHIBOR overnight fell 0.002 (- 0.152%). The US dollar index and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained almost unchanged [2]. - External Futures: COMEX gold rose 10.5 (0.315%), COMEX silver rose 0.095 (0.256%), LME copper fell 99.5 (- 1.0%), LME aluminum fell 8 (- 0.307%), etc. Some products like ICE11 - sugar, ICE2 - cotton, etc. remained unchanged [2]. - Domestic Futures: In the metal sector, gold fell 0.06 (- 0.008%), silver rose 12 (0.135%); in the chemical sector, coking coal rose 6 (0.715%), coke fell 3 (- 0.209%); in the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No.1 fell 8 (- 0.195%), yellow soybean No.2 rose 6 (0.167%) [2][4]. 3.2 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang attended the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit and proposed to establish a China - BRICS New - quality Productivity Research Center and set up the BRICS New Industry "Golden Egret" Excellence Scholarship [6]. - China's Ministry of Finance announced measures for the procurement of some EU - imported medical devices in government procurement activities, and the Ministry of Commerce stated that the measures only target EU - imported products, and products produced by European - funded enterprises in China are not affected [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiation is at a deadlock in the final stage, and there may be several major announcements in the next few days. If an agreement is not reached by August 1, tariffs will return to the April level [7]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [7]. - The market generally expects that the new RMB loans and social financing in June will increase month - on - month [7]. - As of now, the national cumulative purchase of wheat exceeds 50 million tons, and the expected purchase of new - season summer grain is about 100 million tons, with wheat accounting for about 85 million tons [8]. - The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts are in a weak supply - demand situation, with slow inventory clearance and a recommended view of low - level oscillation [11]. - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 75% compared with the previous trading day. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 27th week was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The international sugar price is under pressure, while the domestic sugar price is at a key resistance level of 5780 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend [11]. - On July 3, the corn futures main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the price has fallen below the 40 - day moving average support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the import corn auction and other factors [11]. - The live - pig spot price reached a peak and then declined. Although the supply was tightened in July, the demand was suppressed by high temperatures, and the future increase is limited. The futures market may return to weakness after the basis repair [13]. - The egg price was stable last week and weakened over the weekend. The market has a strong bearish expectation, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in a range or weaken again [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - The caustic soda market has a bearish atmosphere, with supply expected to increase. It lacks strong fundamental support and should pay attention to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [13]. - The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is expected to increase after a short - term decline, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate and consolidate, and the UR2509 contract should pay attention to the 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton range [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - The copper and aluminum market has a positive macro sentiment. After breaking through the pressure level, a bullish view can be taken [15]. - The alumina market has a relatively loose supply, and the production cost is expected to decline slightly. The price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [15]. - The steel price has limited upward momentum in the short term, and there is a risk of a small - scale callback. Rebar should pay attention to the pressure around 3100 yuan, and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the pressure around 3250 yuan [15]. - The ferroalloy market has a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view. If there is no policy intervention, the supply pressure will increase. The industry can consider hedging at the upper pressure level [15]. - The double - coke market has limited upward space and should be treated with an oscillating view [15]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, but there is inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 65000 - yuan pressure level and the 63000 - yuan support level [17]. 3.3.4 Option - Financial - The stock index has an upward - oscillating structure. In July, the market volatility may increase, and the market - cap style may shift to mid - cap stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to IF, IM, and IC for low - buying opportunities [17]. - In the option market, different indexes have different trends. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility [19]. 3.4 Personnel Information The report lists the names, qualification certificates, and investment - consulting certificates of relevant personnel in the agricultural product, industrial product, and financial option sectors [21].