股指期货策略早餐-20250707

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - Intraday View: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - Medium - term View: Bullish [1]. - Reference Strategy: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - Core Logic: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Intraday View: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - Medium - term View: Bullish [3]. - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - Core Logic: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Intraday View: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - Medium - term View: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - Reference Strategy: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - Core Logic: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - Industrial Silicon - Intraday View: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - Medium - term View: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - Reference Strategy: Wait and see [8]. - Core Logic: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - Polysilicon - Intraday View: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - Medium - term View: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - Reference Strategy: Wait and see [11]. - Core Logic: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - Lithium Carbonate - Intraday View: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - Medium - term View: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - Reference Strategy: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - Core Logic: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].