甲醇日评：择机做多MTO利润-20250707

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drivers for methanol are not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply of spot goods in ports has been alleviated. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and to consider going long on MTO profits [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit Data - Futures Prices: On July 4, 2025, MA01 closed at 2437 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.53%); MA05 at 2356 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.42%); MA09 at 2399 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) compared to July 3 [1]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2445 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.41%); in Shandong, 2292.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1]. - Profit Data: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 460.00 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit was 308.80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-10.18%); East China MTO profit was - 854.07 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton (7.97%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fell weakly, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2399 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704431 lots and an open interest of 694763, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: From early to mid - week, far - month non - Iranian cargoes were negotiated at 275 - 284 dollars/ton, with few fixed - price offers and no real - deal transactions. CFR China price was in the range of 217 - 281 dollars/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may be weakly volatile in the short - term. Due to high upstream coal - based profits, poor downstream comprehensive profits, and weak supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading of the 09 contract and to consider going long on MTO profits [1].