集运日报：美称8月开始征收新关税，胡赛再次袭击商船，空单已建议全部止盈，建议轻仓参与或观望-20250707

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]