合成橡胶投资周报：原料端支撑不足，BR基本面弱势延续-20250707

Report Investment Rating - The investment view for BR is oscillating with a downward bias [2] Core View - Recently, the futures market has been significantly affected by negative news and cost factors, showing a clear downward trend. However, butadiene and the spot market are relatively stable. With downstream rigid - demand procurement leading to inventory reduction, the overall market shows some resilience. It is expected that BR will continue to decline due to cost - side negative factors, and the actual decline will depend on the price adjustment space of the spot market [2] Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During this cycle, the ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies remained stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the early and middle of the week, the strengthening of natural rubber and news about China - US economic and trade talks did not provide sustainable support to the butadiene market. The increase in external resources of butadiene and the continuous decline in transaction prices led to a lack of cost support for butadiene rubber. Although there was a shutdown for maintenance at Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant, the overall available spot resources were sufficient. Downstream buyers were waiting for price drops, with negative procurement and firm price - pressing. Driven by weak cost and demand, the synthetic rubber futures market oscillated weakly, and the premium space for arbitrage resources in the spot market gradually narrowed. The trading center of some private resources in the north dropped to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 104,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.91%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 26,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 66.98%. In the short term, domestic butadiene suppliers actively sold their goods externally, and the market supply was relatively abundant. The price decline made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant shut down, while the operating load of some private butadiene rubber plants in Shandong increased. Overall, the supply side changed little [2] 3. Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, at the end of June, agents restocked, which slightly increased the sales in the replacement market channels. The sales at terminal stores remained at a normal level. The price policy for the new month remained stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual channel sales, which was tied to the sales target. In the full - steel tire market, the price in the replacement market remained stable. At the end of last month, agents increased their semi - annual purchase tasks, which put some pressure on downstream inventory. Although the circulation of goods in the channels increased, the terminal sales were limited, and the channel inventory increased significantly. In July, manufacturers had no intention to adjust the price policy and would mainly maintain the previous month's prices. The short - term market quotation was expected to remain stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual transactions depending on the agents' inventory [2] 4. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.65%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 2.56% month - on - month. The arrival of imported ships was limited, and the downstream raw material inventory was consumed normally. Although the spot trading atmosphere was sluggish, the tradable volume in the main port tank farms was limited. Traders expected a possible decrease in imports in July and should pay close attention to inventory changes. For butadiene rubber, the decrease in manufacturers' inventory was mainly driven by the reduction of high inventory at individual manufacturers, while the pressure on traders' spot inventory continued [2] 5. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 25 yuan/ton, in East China was 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures market oscillated, and the basis remained stable [2] 6. Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 2,730 yuan/ton (- 1.44%); the NR - BR spread was 820 yuan/ton (- 14.14%); the BR - SC ratio was - 0.12% [2] 7. Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was a certain amount per ton, and the production profit of carbon - four extraction was another amount per ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was a certain amount per ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.28% [2] 8. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - OPEC's eight - country production increase plan in August exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of 548,000 barrels per day, and further production increases were expected at the August meeting. Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill at the White House on July 4. The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, with continuous expansion in Asia. The US was expected to adjust its comprehensive reciprocal tariffs again, and the market had different attitudes towards tariff increases or decreases [2] 9. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish; Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2] 10. Price Information - Butadiene: The ex - factory prices of Dalian Hengli and Sinopec East China Yangzi were 8,610 yuan/ton and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively on July 4, with week - on - week decreases of 6.51% and 7.29%. The market prices in Hangzhou, Shandong, and Sinopec North China Qilu also showed varying degrees of decline [6] - Butadiene Rubber (BR): The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable at 11,700 yuan/ton. However, the market prices in North, East, and South China regions decreased to varying degrees [5][6] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR): The ex - factory and market prices of some products remained stable, while the prices of some products in the North China market decreased [6] 11. Plant Operation - Butadiene Plants: Many butadiene plants had maintenance or shutdown situations in 2024 - 2025, such as Sierbang Petrochemical, Zhongke Petrochemical, etc. [8] - Butadiene Rubber Plants: Some plants like Yanshan Petrochemical's high - cis butadiene rubber plant were shut down for maintenance, with plans to restart around July 20. Some other plants were operating normally or with an under - full load [8]