新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-7）-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Palm oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillation [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [9] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, with the supply expected to increase and the demand to weaken [2]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil market rebounds due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, but the overall demand is weak [2]. - The glass market has no substantial positive factors, with inventory at a high level and demand expected to weaken [2]. - The stock index futures and options market shows different trends among different indices, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [4]. - The pulp and log markets show different supply - demand situations, with pulp having a supply - demand double - weak pattern and logs having increasing supply pressure [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, and is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. - The soybean meal and related products market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, and is expected to be in an oscillatory state [7]. - The live pig market has a short - term upward trend due to supply - side factors and increased downstream demand [7]. - The rubber market is affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. - The polyester - related product market has different trends, with some products following cost fluctuations and some facing supply - demand changes [9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The recent price is affected by sentiment. The global shipment and arrival volume have declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipment later, and the port inventory is in the process of destocking. In the medium - and long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, the supply is expected to increase. The coke price is under pressure from steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, the supply is expected to shrink, and the price rebounds. However, the overall demand is weak, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - Glass: There is no substantial positive factor, with high inventory and expected weakening demand. The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by sentiment [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: Different indices show different trends. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors are different. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Affected by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, trade policies, and geopolitical risks, the gold market is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and the price of silver is also in a high - level oscillatory state [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The cost support weakens, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is double - weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - Logs: The arrival volume is expected to increase, the supply pressure rises, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [5]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Affected by production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, the inventory continues to rise, and the market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, No. 2 soybeans, and No. 1 soybeans: Affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, the market is expected to be in an oscillatory state, and different products have different influencing factors [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The supply - side support is strong, the downstream demand increases, and the price is expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, the inventory shows different trends, and the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Different products have different supply - demand situations. Some follow cost fluctuations, some face supply - demand weakening, and some are affected by downstream inventory and raw material prices, with corresponding trading suggestions [9].