国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - Silver: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - Zinc: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - Nickel: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - Stainless Steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - Iron Ore: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - Rebar: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - Manganese Ferrosilicon: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - Coke: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - Coking Coal: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - Log: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - Para - Xylene: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - PTA: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - MEG: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - Rubber: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - Fuel Oil: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - Short - Fiber: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - Bottle Chip: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - Offset Printing Paper: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - Palm Oil: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - Soybean Oil: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - Soybean Meal: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - Soybean No. 1: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - Corn: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - Sugar: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - Egg: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - Live Pig: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - Peanut: There was support at the bottom [4].