Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating", and the trading strategy is "wait - and - see" [2] 2. Core View - Geopolitical conflicts may recur, downstream demand in July is in a seasonal off - season, and both ports and production areas have slightly increased inventory. After some Iranian plants restart, the bearish sentiment is released. The anti - involution meeting has temporarily improved market sentiment. In the short term, methanol prices will oscillate, and the upside potential should be viewed cautiously, with a reference range of 2360 - 2460 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2401 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region dropped 15 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 13,418 lots to 400,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,635 lots to 467,400 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 54.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, while that in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 60,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The olefin operating rate is 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 79.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 46.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88% [2] - Other News: US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the US, and a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. Vietnam has also agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]
格林大华期货甲醇早盘提示-20250707
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-07 07:25