纯苯期货合约要点及上市策略建议

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's mainstream expectation is that the pure benzene market will marginally improve, but remain weak in the second half of the year. With PX being strong, there is still room for BZ valuation to decline, and the overall outlook is bearish. However, from a long - term allocation perspective, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, there may be opportunities for light - position trial long trades [2] - The supply reduction of pure benzene is difficult, and the driving force for its valuation repair usually comes from the demand side. The weighted demand growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5 - 5.5%. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the second half of the year is slightly better than that in the first half, but it will still be in a balanced to slightly inventory - building state if there are no unexpected factors in terminal demand [19][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Futures Contract Points Interpretation - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange starting from 09:00 on July 8, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606. The daily price limit is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% of the listing benchmark price on the first trading day. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and 0.005% for hedging transactions [11] - The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons per lot, much larger than that of styrene futures. The ratio for hedging with styrene can be set at 1:6 or 1:7.5. The last trading day and the last delivery day are the same as those of styrene contracts. The main contracts of pure benzene are expected to change monthly continuously, different from PX's 1/5/9 main contracts, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of far - month contracts [12] 2. Key Points of Pure Benzene Delivery Rules - The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures announced by DCE is consistent with the current national standard (GB/T 3405 - 2025), and coal - based hydrogenated benzene can also participate in delivery. The crystallization point requirement is ≥5.45°C [16] - The delivery area has been expanded from East China to South China, North China, and Northeast China. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark delivery areas, Shandong has a discount of 50 yuan per ton, and South China has no premium or discount [17] - Pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are cancelled monthly to align with the characteristics of the spot market [18] 3. Strategy Suggestions for the First Listing Day of Pure Benzene - Absolute Price Dimension: Based on the Singapore Exchange's far - month contracts, the price of pure benzene in East China in March next year is estimated to be around 5900 yuan per ton. Calculated by the current spot price in East China plus the far - month paper - cargo premium structure, the far - month price may be around 6000 - 6100 yuan per ton, but there may be a discount between the futures price and the East China price. In the long - term, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, light - position trial long trades can be considered [2][22] - Internal - External Arbitrage: Considering the different delivery systems of the Singapore Exchange (cash settlement) and DCE (physical delivery), opportunities for long Singapore Exchange pure benzene and short DCE pure benzene can be explored [2][23] - Cross - Variety Arbitrage in the Industrial Chain: The median spread corresponding to the break - even point of non - integrated styrene plants is 1300 yuan per ton. Without a squeeze, the 2603 EB - BZ spread may range from 1100 to 1500 yuan per ton [3][23]