Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the steel and iron ore futures markets are boosted by steel mill production cut news, showing a rebound trend. For steel, with the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, steel demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the short - term steel price rebound has great pressure. For iron ore, high hot metal production and low steel mill inventories strongly support the price, but attention should be paid to the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand and steel mill production cuts on hot metal [3][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by long - position main force position - increasing. As of Friday, it closed at 3072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.57% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in major regions generally increased significantly, and overall trading improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average steel price increased by 65 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. also increased to varying degrees [5] Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.46%, a 0.36% week - on - week decrease and a 0.65% year - on - year increase; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 1.21% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 66.87%, a 3.27% week - on - week decrease and a 3.12% year - on - year decrease; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 51.05%, a 3.44% week - on - week decrease and a 2.03% year - on - year increase. The weekly steel production increased by 3.24 tons to 221.08 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - Demand: This week, the building materials trading volume and the apparent steel consumption both increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 1.12 tons to 10.85 tons, and the apparent steel consumption increased by 4.96 tons to 224.87 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent steel consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to increase slightly, while the steel inventory continued to decrease slightly. As of Friday, the total steel inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons. In absolute terms, the current steel inventory remained at a low level in the same period. Among them, the social steel inventory increased by 1.34 tons to 364.74 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 5.13 tons to 180.47 tons [7] - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for steel in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a 13 - yuan increase from last week. Currently, the steel basis is near the average. It is expected that the steel basis will likely increase in the future [7] 2. Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 09 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by short - position main force position - reducing. As of Friday, it closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.23% [7][8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the price of domestic iron ore concentrate remained stable, and overall trading was average. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties at ports such as Qingdao and Tianjin changed to varying degrees [9] Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 30th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2882.3 tons, a 178.5 - ton week - on - week decrease. The 45 - port iron ore arrivals were at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons [9] - Demand: The current daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 319.29 tons, a 6.65 - ton week - on - week decrease; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 0.3 tons to 98.9 tons; the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a 1.44 - ton week - on - week decrease; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.81 tons, a 0.43 - ton week - on - week decrease [9] - Inventory: As of July 4th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons, a 51.83 - ton week - on - week decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8918.57 tons, a 71.1 - ton week - on - week increase [9] - Basis: As of Friday, the best - deliverable iron ore at Qingdao Port was 742 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a 12 - yuan decrease from last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is below the average, and it is expected that the future contraction space of the iron ore basis is limited [9]
短期受钢厂减产消息提振，螺矿盘面延续反弹走势
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 07:51