1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price center of live pigs continues to move up, and the corn futures price has broken through 2300 again. The short - term price of live pigs is expected to be relatively firm, while the upward expectation of the corn market may converge and there is a risk of high - level adjustment [3][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Futures**: Last week, the live pig futures declined significantly. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,565 yuan/ton, a 3.26% drop from the previous week's settlement price [4] - **Spot**: The national ex - ternary live pig market price was 12.97 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 yuan/ton. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 35.96 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 67.49 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 [4] - **Market Situation**: The national live pig spot market rose first and then fell last week, with the overall price center moving up. The market sentiment was supported by the temperature drop, but the actual transaction was average under high prices in the second half of the week. The supply side had no obvious fluctuations, and the market fluctuations mainly focused on the demand side. With the release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the short - term price is expected to be relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms [4] Corn - **Futures**: Last week, the corn futures fell first and then rose. The C2603 contract closed at 2300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase from the previous week's settlement price [5] - **Spot**: The national average corn spot price was 2373.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.22 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [5] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From January 15th to January 21st, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.15 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased, and the weekly output of corn starch was 33.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 tons, with an operating rate of 60.46%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased, with a weekly output of 11.608 tons, a decrease of 0.139 tons or 1.18% [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 21st, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 383.8 tons, an increase of 6.91%. As of January 23rd, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 1.49 million tons, and the corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 680,000 tons [6] - **Market Situation**: The national corn spot market was oscillating strongly last week. The grain circulation in the Northeast was tight, and the market quotation was stable and strong. The purchase price of enterprises in North China first rose and then fell due to snow. The operating rate of the industry increased slightly, and the overall operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventory, and downstream enterprises maintained rolling replenishment. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises was low year - on - year, and the pre - festival stocking demand boosted the market price, but the upward expectation may converge [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the coking coal price was stable with an upward bias, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures stopped falling and rebounded. The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1157 on Friday with a weekly decline of 1.2%, while the coke 2605 contract closed at 1722 on Friday with a weekly increase of 0.29% [2][3] - For coking coal, supply increased last week while demand remained stable. The coking coal 2605 contract stopped falling and rebounded last week, closing above the 20 - day moving average on Friday. Attention should be paid to the support at the 20 - day moving average [3][4] - For coke, both supply and demand declined last week. The coke 2605 contract stopped falling and rebounded last week and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] - The average coking coal - to - coke ratio last week was 1.49. From the seasonal chart of the past five years, it is currently at a relatively average level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the changes in the 1.35 - 1.55 range [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Coking Coal 1.1 Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 89.3%, a 0.8% increase from the previous week; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] - The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants nationwide was 37.4%, a 0.6% increase from the previous week; the daily average output of clean coal was 276,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous week [3] - Domestic coal mines were still in the process of resuming production, and coal mines in the main production areas had generally resumed production. The coking coal price continued to rise, and the production enthusiasm of independent coal washing plants increased, resulting in a steady increase in coking coal supply [3] 1.2 Demand - As the coking coal price continued to rise while the coke price increase failed to materialize, the profit per ton of coke for coking enterprises narrowed significantly, and some coking enterprises were in a loss - making state. The current round of concentrated replenishment by coking enterprises has basically ended, and coking and steel enterprises have become more cautious in purchasing coking coal. However, most coking enterprises maintained stable production, and there was still rigid demand for coking coal. Some coking and steel enterprises also had the demand for winter storage replenishment [4] - The phenomenon of failed online auctions of coking coal increased recently, and the market sentiment of coking coal declined and returned to rationality [4] 1.3 Inventory - Due to the replenishment demand of coking and steel enterprises, coal mines and coal washing plants had good shipments, and the inventory of clean coal showed a downward trend. However, as the replenishment demand weakened, the market returned to rationality, and downstream enterprises began to control inventory [3] 2. Coke 2.1 Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 72.41%, a 0.14% decrease from the previous week; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 633,100 tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous week [6] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. Due to the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the profitability of coking enterprises per ton of coke narrowed, and some coking enterprises in serious losses had plans to reduce production. However, most coking enterprises were still in normal production, and the coke supply remained stable. At ports, the coke spot price was stable, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory increased slightly [6] 2.2 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, an 0.86% increase from the previous week [6] - After the Baotou Steel accident, the safety situation of steel mills was tense, and the off - season of steel demand was obvious. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the rigid demand for coke declined, and the inventory of coke in steel mills was at a relatively high level in history. Steel mills were highly resistant to the coke price increase proposed by coking enterprises, and it was difficult to implement. Overall, steel mills mainly purchased on demand [6] 3. Inventory Data | Commodity | Location | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Weekly Change (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 289.38 | - 9.52 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 1177.71 | 44.86 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 803.24 | 1.04 | | | Total | 2270.33 | 36.38 | | Coke | Port | 196.06 | 7.99 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 81.45 | - 0.36 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 661.64 | 11.31 | | | Total | 939.15 | 18.94 | [8] 4. Other Data | Indicator | Value | Weekly/Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity < 1 million tons) | 44.78% | - 0.84% | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity 1 - 2 million tons) | 66.46% | - 0.03% | | Coking enterprise operating rate (capacity > 2 million tons) | 77.48% | 0 | | Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide | 78.68% | - 0.16% | | Profitability rate of 247 steel mills nationwide | 40.69% | 0.86% | | Cumulative pig iron output (December) | 83604.10 million tons | - 3.00% | | Cumulative crude steel output (December) | 96081.23 million tons | - 4.40% | [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices are continuously hitting new highs. Gold price is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, while silver price is influenced by the expanding supply gap. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased, it has not affected the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The market shows a supply - demand imbalance, leading to consecutive price increases. However, as prices rise, risks also increase, so one should follow the trend while being aware of risks [2][5][7] Summary by Related Information Gold and Silver Price Performance - Last Friday, gold price rose to $4,980 per ounce, touching the psychological mark of $5,000 during the session. Silver price historically broke through the $100 - per - ounce mark, reaching $103 per ounce with a 7% daily increase. The prices of both gold and silver showed significant upward trends throughout the week [2] Geopolitical Factors - Trump stated in Davos that he would not use force to seize Greenland and withdrew the threat of taxing Europe, but he did not give up on Greenland and warned that the US would retaliate if Europe sold US assets. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems and is considering a full - scale blockade of Cuba's oil imports. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices [2][3] US Economic Indicators - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, a five - month high, up 3.5 points from the previous month, higher than the initial value of 54.0 and exceeding the economists' prediction range. In November 2025, inflation - adjusted personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while real disposable personal income increased by only 1%, the smallest annual increase since 2022, and the personal savings rate dropped to a three - year low [3][5] Interest Rate Cut Expectations - After two consecutive quarters of strong economic growth in the US since 2021, the Fed does not seem to face immediate pressure to cut interest rates. The latest market average prediction is that the Fed will start cutting rates in June (previously predicted to be in March), and the second and last cut will occur in September. The expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased [5] Silver Supply and Demand - In 2025, the world's annual silver production was 25,000 tons, with a shortage of nearly 100 million tons. Silver is widely used in photovoltaic production, and Musk's space - photovoltaic concept has increased the demand for silver, contributing to the upward breakthrough of silver price [5] Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The real supply - demand imbalance in the gold and silver market, combined with the artificial imbalance caused by hoarding, has led to continuous price increases. It is difficult to end this upward cycle without external forces to change the supply - demand structure in the short term [6][7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Mid - term, the direction of US interest rate cuts and positive policies of various countries create a favorable environment for non - ferrous metals. With gold prices hitting new highs, the financial attribute of copper is expected to support copper prices. Given the overall tight supply - demand fundamentals, the copper price will likely maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and may have a slight rebound this week [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Review - Last week, the main Shanghai copper futures price showed a high - level oscillation pattern. Due to the profit - taking at the end of the previous week and some macro data falling short of expectations, the price oscillated downward. Last week, it stabilized around 101,000 yuan/ton, and slightly strengthened in Friday's night session [4] Supply and Demand - BHP slightly increased its copper output forecast, but global mining supply is still affected by uncertainties in smelting and ore transportation. The TC spot price hit a new low. Last week, the SMM enameled wire industry's operating rate increased by 3.07 percentage points to 82.27% week - on - week. The SMM copper cable enterprises' operating rate increased by 2.72 percentage points week - on - week to 58.71%, and 15.87 percentage points year - on - year. As the copper price dropped last week, market sentiment improved, stimulating downstream orders. With end - user home appliance inventory demand and improved orders from power grids and the stable support from the automotive industry, the operating rate is expected to continue rising week - on - week [4] Macroeconomics - Domestic economic data rebounded slightly month - on - month, and the market has optimistic expectations for policies during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, which supports non - ferrous metal prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation last week, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap ones. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue in the future, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter and theme rotations centered around the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly showed differentiated consolidation, with relatively large increases in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties improved significantly, and the main contracts entered the futures premium mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was 5.61 for IH, 6.70 for IF, 68.03 for IC, and 45.86 for IM. The A-share market showed a differentiated consolidation, with the weekly lines of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closing in the positive territory. The small and medium-sized indices were relatively strong, and the daily trading volume of the two markets remained above 2.5 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan on Friday. The money-making effect spread from a structural one to the whole market. The space photovoltaic + commercial space sector remained hot, basic metals and precious metals strengthened, power grid equipment benefited from the trillion-level investment plan, and the logic of semiconductor domestic substitution and technological iteration remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the large financial sector (banks/insurance/securities) adjusted continuously, and sectors such as liquor and home appliances performed poorly [2] Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, the actual GDP in 2025 achieved a 5.0% growth, the same as in 2024, showing a "high in the front and low in the back" structure with external demand better than internal demand, and positive changes appeared in the price level. Overseas, the global bond market experienced a sell-off due to the statements of Trump and Koike Yuriko. The geopolitical risk in the US also reached an inflection point on January 21, and the global panic has been significantly alleviated, with a low possibility of a US or global liquidity crisis in the future. Looking forward, with sufficient liquidity in the first quarter, theme rotations will revolve around the "15th Five-Year Plan", and the fundamentals and corporate earnings are gradually being revised upwards, so the bullish market of A-shares is expected to continue [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the margin for margin trading does not affect the general upward trend of the market but will influence its structure. The game in thematic sectors intensifies, and the unilateral trend driven solely by narratives and capital relay ends, with the weight of performance clues rising again [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a trend of shock consolidation, with relatively large adjustment ranges for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300. The depth of the basis discount of the four stock index futures varieties narrowed, but most of the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts of the index futures were: IH at 4.64, IF at -8.67, IC at -22.27, and IM at -53.53 [3]. - The A - share market showed a shock consolidation trend last week. The adjustment was mainly due to the excessive short - term gains in commercial aerospace and AI applications where a large amount of funds were concentrated. The exchange's increase in the margin for margin trading reflected the regulatory authorities' intention to cool down the over - rapid market rise. Although the index pulled back, the abundant market liquidity and high market sentiment meant that this technical correction was not a cause for concern. The market was still centered around technology, as seen from the performance of various sectors and the differentiation between the main board index and the STAR Market and ChiNext index [3]. Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, the central bank took a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, merging the re - loan and rediscount quotas for supporting agriculture and small businesses, increasing the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, and setting up a separate 1 trillion yuan re - loan for private enterprises to focus on supporting small and medium - sized private enterprises [4][5]. - Overseas, the year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI in December dropped to 2.7%, in line with market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.7%, and the month - on - month growth rate of the core CPI was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% [5].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of live pigs has shifted upward, and there is a need to be vigilant about high - level risks in corn [3]. Content Summary Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,980 yuan/ton, up 1.83% from the previous week's settlement price. The national ex - ternary live pig market price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.24 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of January 16, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig farming profit was 7.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 18.93 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 50.66 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.51, up 0.05 week - on - week [5]. - The national live pig spot price first stabilized and then rose last week. Currently, the supply has not fully increased, the number of large pigs sold by retail farmers is small, and second - round fattening replenishment provides support. The overall market sentiment is stable, driving the live pig price to rise steadily. The slaughter end has a low acceptance of high - priced pig sources. In the short term, affected by snowfall, the market is in a stalemate between supply and demand. After the 20th, the supply may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of live pig prices [5]. Corn - Last week, the corn futures rose first and then fell. The C2603 contract closed at 2,281 yuan/ton, up 0.8% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average corn spot price was 2,363.92 yuan/ton, up 12.06 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also showed an upward trend [6]. - From January 8 to January 14, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 315,400 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 57.65%. The DDGS industry's operating rate dropped to 58.02%, a decrease of 4.02% from the previous week, and the production volume decreased by 6.48% [7]. - As of January 14, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.59 million tons, an increase of 1.41%. As of January 16, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.32 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 760,000 tons [7][8]. - The national corn spot market fluctuated and rose last week. The grassroots grain sales progress in the Northeast region was faster than the same period last year, and the import corn auction was continuously put into the market. The market had a strong bullish sentiment, while the purchase price in the North China region remained in a narrow - range shock. The current raw material corn price is at a high level, and the operating rate of the industry has declined. Although the market has not seen a large - scale increase in supply, and downstream grain - using enterprises are stocking up, as the pre - holiday grain sales window shortens and the supply of policy - based grain sources increases, the upward space of corn prices may be limited. There is an enhanced pressure on the upper side of the futures price, and there is a need to be vigilant about high - level adjustment risks [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of precious metals is in consolidation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The core logic of the market remains intact, with geopolitical turmoil and central bank gold - buying supporting gold prices, and strong industrial demand and supply shortages supporting silver prices. [2][8] Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Price Trends - Last week, gold prices rose to $4,600 per ounce, and silver prices reached a high of $92 per ounce and closed near the high of $90 per ounce. [3] Geopolitical Factors - Trump suspended the military action against Iran, leading to a slight cooling of short - term risk - aversion sentiment. However, the future situation remains uncertain. [3] US Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, lower than market expectations, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The confidence of US homebuilders unexpectedly declined in January, and the market condition index dropped 2 points to 37. US manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in December, and industrial output unexpectedly grew in December with the previous month's value revised upwards. [5] Fed - related Factors - Trump's unwillingness to nominate Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decrease in the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts, a rebound in the US dollar, and a decline in precious metals and other metal prices. There are many uncertainties in the appointment of the new Fed Chairman, and if the new chairman does not implement aggressive interest - rate cuts, the market's original expectations may change. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The game of coke price increase intensified, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a weak trend. The coking coal 2605 contract had a weekly decline of 2.05%, and the coke 2605 contract had a weekly decline of 1.77%. [2][3] - Last week, both the supply and demand of coking coal increased. The coking coal 2605 contract fell from a high level last week, with support at the 10 - day moving average, and the bullish trend remained unchanged. [3][4] - Last week, both the supply and demand of coke increased. The coke 2605 contract showed a weak and volatile trend last week, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. [6] - The average ratio of coking coal last week was 1.46. From the seasonal chart of the past 5 years, it is currently at a relatively average level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **A. Futures and Spot Market Quotes** - The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1171 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 2.05%. The spot prices in the mainstream regions were stable with a slightly upward trend. [3] - The coke 2605 contract closed at 1717 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 1.77%. The spot prices in the mainstream regions remained stable. [3] **B. Fundamental Analysis** **Coking Coal** - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 88.5%, a 3.2% increase from the previous week. The daily average production of clean coal was 76.9 tons, a 3.5 - ton increase. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.8%, a 1.4% increase. The daily average production of clean coal was 27.4 tons, a 1.3 - ton increase. The inventory of clean coal in raw material factories decreased. [3] - **Demand Side**: The profit per ton of coke for coke enterprises narrowed significantly. Most coke enterprises were on the verge of profit and loss. However, the market expectation improved, and the demand for coking coal increased. The online trading atmosphere of coking coal was good. [4] **Coke** - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.55%, a 0.14% decrease from the previous week. The daily average production was 63.45 tons, a 0.12 - ton decrease. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 66 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease. The coke supply was mainly stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. [6] - **Demand Side**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a 0.47% decrease from the previous week. The daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, a 1.49 - ton decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 2.17% increase. The steel mills' demand for coke replenishment increased. [6] **C. Inventory Data** | Commodity | Location | Inventory (tons) | Weekly Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 298,900 | - 900 | | Coking Coal | All - sample independent coking plants | 1,132,850 | 61,170 | | Coking Coal | 247 sample steel mills | 802,200 | 4,470 | | Coking Coal | Total | 2,233,950 | 64,740 | | Coke | Port | 188,070 | 3,970 | | Coke | All - sample independent coking plants | 81,810 | - 4,260 | | Coke | 247 sample steel mills | 650,330 | 4,600 | | Coke | Total | 920,210 | 4,310 | [8]

Report Title - The weekly report focuses on rebar and iron ore futures, titled "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and iron ore face significant short - term rebound pressure, and the intensity of winter storage demand restocking should be monitored [2] - Whether the prices of rebar and iron ore can continue to rebound depends on the strength of winter storage restocking and the recovery of hot metal demand [6][8] Summary by Category Rebar Futures - The rebar 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by long - position main force's position increase. It closed at 3144 yuan/ton on Friday, up 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.7% [4] Spot - The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, with average trading volume. The national average rebar price increased by 21 yuan to 3337 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions showed different changes, such as remaining unchanged in Shanghai, rising by 30 yuan in Hangzhou, 20 yuan in Beijing, 40 yuan in Tianjin, and 10 yuan in Guangzhou [4] Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 79.31%, up 0.37% month - on - month and 2.13% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78% month - on - month and 1.80% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 72.97%, up 4.34% month - on - month and 6.95% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 56.91%, up 1.76% month - on - month and 6.27% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output increased by 2.82 tons to 191.04 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [4] - **Cost and Profit**: For short - process steel mills in East China, the estimated cost of electric furnaces was 3169 yuan, up 6 yuan, and the profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 179 yuan, with the loss increasing by 16 yuan compared with last week. For long - process steel mills in East China, the estimated cost of crude steel was 2967 yuan, up 42 yuan, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces was 23 yuan, down 33 yuan compared with last week [4] - **Demand**: The building material trading volume increased slightly, while the apparent consumption of rebar decreased slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials increased by 0.2 tons to 9.63 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.48 tons to 174.96 tons, remaining at a low level compared with the same period [4] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar started to accumulate slightly. The total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 tons to 438.11 tons, with social inventory increasing by 7.52 tons to 290.18 tons and factory inventory increasing by 8.56 tons to 147.93 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [4][5] Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 116 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, an increase of 14 yuan compared with last week. The rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will likely shrink in the future [6] Comprehensive Judgement - With the end of some steel mills' maintenance, the output of five major steel products has stabilized slightly, and rebar output has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks. The apparent demand for rebar has continued to decline, and rebar inventory has started to accumulate slightly. Attention should be paid to the decline in off - season demand [6] Iron Ore Futures - The iron ore 05 contract maintained a rebound trend driven by long - position main force's position increase. It closed at 814.5 yuan/ton on Friday, up 25.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 3.17% [6] Spot - The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to decline steadily, with average trading volume. The prices of different iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port showed different increases, and the price of Tangshan 66% iron ore concentrate index decreased by 4 yuan to 976 yuan/ton [6] Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 5th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2742.7 tons, a decrease of 316.9 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments were 1939.6 tons, a decrease of 174.1 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1615.3 tons, a decrease of 252.3 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803.2 tons, a decrease of 142.7 tons. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons, and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons. Currently, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore are at medium - to - high levels compared with the same period [6] - **Demand**: The daily average ore - unloading volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons, a decrease of 1.94 tons compared with last week. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 12.55 tons to 98.33 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons compared with last week and 5.13 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 283.28 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons. Currently, the demand indicators are at medium - to - high levels compared with the same period [8] - **Inventory**: As of the 9th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, reaching 16275.26 tons, an increase of 304.37 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons. The inventory at ports is at a medium - to - high level, while the inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level compared with the same period [8] Basis - The optimal delivery product, Qingdao Port's Carajás fines, was priced at 847 yuan/ton, with a premium of 33 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week. The iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected that the iron ore basis will likely shrink in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgement - The short - term imported iron ore shipments have decreased slightly as the year - end rush for shipments weakens, and the arrivals are expected to rebound significantly next week. The port inventory is under some pressure. The daily average hot metal output has continued to rise, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased, with steel mills continuing to restock slightly [8]