财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-08-18 预期兑现叠加技术面背离，螺矿盘面短期偏弱运行 研究员 提涨落地，导致长流程钢厂利润继续小幅收缩。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2 页 共 9 页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 【螺纹钢】 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在空头主力增仓驱动下开始破位小幅下挫。截 止周五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3188 元/吨，环比上周下跌 25.0 元， 周跌幅 0.78%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 10 元至 3384 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 20 元至 3320 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 40 元至 3340 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3290 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3320 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格下 调 20 元至 3350 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.59%，环比减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant, and sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment leading the way, while the banking sector declined significantly. There was a certain market rotation, and in the long run, industries supported by national policies will maintain an upward - trending oscillation [3]. - In July, external demand remained resilient beyond expectations, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth in July dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined in July due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that Sino - US economic and trade relations will remain in a phased stable state, and exports in the second half of the year are expected to maintain strong resilience [4][5]. - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend. The basis of the futures - spot of the main contracts of stock index futures was 13.52 for IH, 7.05 for IF, - 37.57 for IC, and - 31.3 for IM. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant. Only the banking sector closed down, and there was a certain market rotation [3]. Macroeconomic Situation - In July, external demand remained resilient, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that exports in the second half of the year will maintain strong resilience [4][5]. Market Outlook - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are likely to strengthen in the medium - term despite a possible bumpy upward path, as the Fed's new round of interest rate cuts is a major background factor, and the US dollar is in a downward trend [5]. - A September interest rate cut by the Fed is still a high - probability event, though it may shift from a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut to a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price - Last week, the gold price oscillated downward. The main contract 2510 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures closed at $3381 per ounce, and Shanghai gold closed at 775 yuan per gram [1]. US - Russia Negotiation - The negotiation between Trump and Putin in Alaska didn't result in any agreement. Trump claimed to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting soon, and Putin hopes to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully. However, the key issue is the extent of Ukraine's compromise on the territorial problem [2]. US Economic Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations - In July, the US CPI showed that inflation didn't worsen. The year - on - year growth was 2.7% (estimated 2.8%, previous 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth was 0.2% (estimated 0.2%, previous 0.3%). The core CPI (excluding food and energy) had a year - on - year growth of 3.1% (estimated 3%, previous 2.9%) and a month - on - month growth of 0.3% (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.2%) [4]. - The US July PPI had an unexpected increase. The month - on - month growth was 0.9% (far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%), and the year - on - year increase was 3.3%, higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. This data made the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Fed cool down slightly, with the probability dropping from nearly 100% to 92% [5]. - A September interest rate cut is still likely, with a possible reduction of 25 basis points instead of 50. Trump wants the interest rate to drop to 1%, while the US Treasury Secretary suggests a neutral rate of 3%. A total of 150 basis points of cuts are expected, with 2 - 3 cuts of 25 basis points each this year and reaching 3% next year [5].

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-18 财达期货｜铜周报 供需方面，SMM 数据显示铜精矿 TC 指数报元吨-37.68 美元/吨，环比 上涨。SMM 周度漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 78.4%，新 增订单下降 3.18 个百分点。淡季周期下需求疲软、铜价扰动交织，行业开机 率与订单延续收缩态势。铜线缆企业开工率 69.3%较上周继续降低；预期本 周开工率微降至 67.6%，因铜价高位抑制采购，市场暂无新需求增长点、终 端订单疲软致需求无实质改善。企业调研来看，企业称市场处传统淡季，消 费疲软及原料紧张制约生产，但订单较前期已有好转，预计 8 月整体新订单 比 7 月向好。终端方面，8 月乘用车销量保持平稳增长，但房地产成交面积 表现明显较弱。三大交易所库存环比增加 0.7 万吨。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 宏观方面，美国 7 月 PPI 月率录得 0.9%，为 2022 年以来最大增幅，暗 示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升。数据公布后，美联储官员反驳 9 月大幅降息 的预期，美指扩大涨幅，压制铜价。美俄领导人小范围会谈结束，会晤没有 达成具体协议，关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the live hog market last week was weak with regional differentiation, and the price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term; the corn market was weak and adjusted, and the futures main contract may continue to decline in the short term [5][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: The live hog futures first rose and then fell last week. The LH2511 contract closed at 13,945 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: As of August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was 28.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 16.28 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 157.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 22.91 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09. The national live hog spot market showed regional differentiation last week, with the overall being weak. Supply pressure was high due to weight reduction and delayed slaughter in July, and high - temperature inhibited consumption, resulting in oversupply. However, after continuous price drops, farmers had resistance sentiment, and the price decline space was limited [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the performance of the far - month contracts of corn futures was worse than that of the near - month contracts. The C2509 contract closed at 2,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2511 contract closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous week's settlement price [7] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. The prices in ports were mostly stable with some minor adjustments [7] - Industrial Consumption: From August 7 to August 13, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 15,500 tons to 576,000 tons, and the weekly output of corn starch increased by 10,700 tons to 289,200 tons, with the weekly operating rate rising by 2.07% to 55.9%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 42.00%, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week, and the weekly production decreased by 2,200 tons to 85,470 tons, a decrease of 2.51% [8] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. As of August 15, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.74 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 750,000 tons [8] - Market Outlook: The national corn spot market was stable with a weak trend last week. Policy grain was continuously put into the market in the Northeast, and the market quotation declined slightly; traders in North China sold at high prices, increasing market circulation, and enterprises lowered purchase prices. Some starch enterprises resumed work, increasing the operating rate, while some alcohol enterprises continued maintenance, reducing the operating rate. In the short term, the corn market will be weakly adjusted, and the main contract on the futures market may continue to decline [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the coking coal supply decreased slightly while demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell from a high due to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's adjustment of trading limits, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [3][4] - Last week, the supply and demand of coke were both stable. The coke 2601 contract also fell from a high and stopped falling at the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the 1.25 - 1.45 range of the coking coal - coke ratio [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1230 on Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. The mainstream spot market prices remained stable [3] - The coke 2601 contract closed at 1729.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.26%. The mainstream spot market prices increased by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines in the country was 83.7%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, an increase of 0.3% from the previous week, and the daily output of clean coal was 264,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. There were continuous disturbances at the coal mine end, and the supply of some coal types was tight. The inventory pressure of coking coal mines was small, the raw coal inventory decreased, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased [3] - **Demand**: The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented last week. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, supporting the strong rigid demand for coking coal. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the operating rate increased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand, and the proportion of auction failures increased [4] Coke - **Supply**: The utilization rate of the production capacity of the national full - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week, and the daily output was 653,800 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the inventory decreased. However, some coking enterprises in some regions received production restriction notices, and the supply was expected to be restricted. The coke spot at ports was stable and slightly stronger, and the inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.58%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the daily pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. The rigid demand for coke remained, but the demand was mainly on - demand in the short term [6] 3. Inventory - **Coking Coal**: The total inventory of coking coal was 20.3817 million tons, a decrease of 357,500 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 218,500 tons at ports, 110,400 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 28,600 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8] - **Coke**: The total inventory of coke was 8.8742 million tons, a decrease of 197,400 tons from the previous week, including a decrease of 30,400 tons at ports, 72,200 tons at full - sample independent coking plants, and 94,800 tons at 247 sample steel mills [8]

财达期货｜股指期货周报 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种继续呈现高位整理格局，其中沪深 300 与中证 500 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差大部分仍 为期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 0.27，IF 收于-25.33，IC 收于-109.20，IM 收于-127.67。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场以高位调整为主基调，伴随着量能的收缩以及高 位的获利兑现压力，下周继续下跌的可能性较大。上周板块已经出 现了高低切换，金融行业淡出了涨幅榜，相对低位的医药和教育行 业补涨，中药板块近 3 日涨幅 3.94%，教育板块近 3 日涨幅 2.33%。 整体看，指数运行正在向下运行，下行过程中抵抗性板块可能有潜 力。 综合分析： 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 高位调整，板块切换 研究员 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-8-4 Z0012495 展望下周，政策面上政治局会议释放多项重磅信号。会议对外 部形势的判断有所缓和。宏观政策方面，会议强调落实落细更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。结构政策方面，扩内需政策 更加强调支持"服务消费"和推动"两重"建设，而"反内卷" ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-4 宏观方面，7 月美联储利率会议决定不降息，符合市场预期，但会后声明 叠加后续公布的非农就业数据不及预期使得市场对 9 月降息预期升温。美国 总统特朗普签署公告宣布对自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集型衍 生产品征收 50%的关税，铜输入原料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和 阳极铜）和铜废料不受关税约束，消息发布后 COMEX 铜暴跌，LME 铜小幅 跟跌。中美贸易谈判双方同意继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分如期 展期 90 天，但并未达成新的突破性协议。 总的来看，原料紧张及库存低位能够为铜价提供下跌的支撑，但目前整 体仍处淡季，无明显上行动能。市场仍等待美国与未达成贸易协议国家的谈 判结果，不确定性较高压制铜价，预计短期受宏观影响铜价仍震荡偏弱走势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价短期震荡偏弱 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，部分冶炼厂仍面临亏损状态，加工费维持负数区间。上周漆 包线行业订单整体平稳，周尾受铜价下行带动，新增订单环比增长 1.68 个百 分点，推动开机率小幅回升至 78.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The signals released by the 7.30 meeting fell short of expectations, causing significant short - term adjustments in the screw and ore futures markets. The short - term demand for rebar is affected by seasonality and has weakened, with inventory slightly increasing. After the policy expectations are fulfilled, the short - term driving logic of rebar may return to fundamentals, and the short - term futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure. - The short - term import ore shipping volume has increased slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase in the future. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron volume continues to decrease slightly, and the steel mill's daily consumption has also declined. Steel mills continue the replenishment strategy in the short term. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the rebar trend and remain weak [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 10 contract adjusted significantly under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 4.56% [4]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream rebar regions generally decreased significantly, and the overall trading weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 76 yuan to 3395 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [4]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% from the previous week and up 1.37% year - on - year; the average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills in the country was 74.21%, up 2.18% from the previous week and up 12.75% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.05%, up 1.56% from the previous week and up 15.11% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 0.9 tons to 211.06 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [4]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3215 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous week. The electric furnace profit of rebar is a loss of 145 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 5 yuan from last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise, with a slightly narrower increase [4]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2817 yuan, up 11 yuan from the previous week. The blast furnace profit of rebar is 253 yuan, narrowing by 21 yuan from last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate did not change significantly, while the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease slightly. With the implementation of policy expectations, the price decline of finished products was more significant than that of raw materials, and the fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, resulting in a slight contraction of long - process steel mill profits [4]. - **Demand and Inventory** - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume and rebar apparent consumption both decreased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.99 tons to 10.02 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 13.17 tons to 203.41 tons, still at a low level in the same period [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar began to accumulate slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons to 546.29 tons, still at a low level in the same period; the social rebar inventory increased by 11.17 tons to 384.14 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.52 tons to 162.15 tons [7]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 157 yuan over the rebar 10 contract, widening by 83 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is near the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis is more likely to continue to widen [7]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure [7]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 09 contract continued the adjustment trend under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decline of 2.43% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron concentrate began to decline steadily. The overall trading was average [7]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of July 28, the total shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2755.9 tons, an increase of 203.9 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Australia was 1859.6 tons, an increase of 230.2 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1550.4 tons, an increase of 106.8 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 896.4 tons, a decrease of 26.2 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [9]. - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 302.71 tons, a decrease of 12.44 tons from the previous week; the weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore is 96.64 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons from last week and an increase of 4.09 tons compared to last year; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 299.46 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the 45 - port iron ore inventory began to decrease slightly, currently at 13657.90 tons, a decrease of 132.48 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9012.09 tons, an increase of 126.87 tons [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Qingdao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 807 yuan/ton, with a premium of 24 yuan over the continuous iron 10 contract, widening by 5 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is at the average level, and it is expected that the iron ore basis is more likely to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the rebar trend and remain weak [9].