申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded but showed hesitation in further upward movement. As the deadline for the tariff suspension approaches in July, the market is uneasy about policy uncertainties. The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data and the decline in the unemployment rate have cooled the expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed, putting pressure on gold and silver. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised expectations of fiscal deficits, leading to a weak dollar. Fed officials have indicated a wait - and - see stance, with conditions for rate cuts including lower inflation, weaker employment data, and clear trade policies. The impact of tariff policies shown in recent US data is smaller than feared, but it may increase as corporate inventories are depleted. The market may be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies become clear, the expectation of a rate cut will be further clarified, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Although the long - term drivers for gold still provide support, it is at a high price and shows hesitation in upward movement. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Gold Futures: For沪金2508, the current price is 774.72, down 0.16 (-0.02%) from the previous close, with a trading volume of 53073 and an open interest of 93922. For沪金2512, the current price is 778.98, up 0.18 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 24526 and an open interest of 85287. The spread between沪金2512 and previous values is 4.26 (previous was 3.92). [2] - Silver Futures: For沪银2508, the current price is 8931.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 385997 and an open interest of 250718. For沪银2512, the current price is 8976.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 49501 and an open interest of 185262. The spread between沪银2512 and previous values is 45 (unchanged). [2] Spot Market - Gold Spot: London gold's previous closing price was 771.57, down 4.24 (-0.55%); Shanghai Gold T + D's previous closing price was 3336.94, up 10.855 (0.33%). The ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.49 (previous was 7.54). [2] - Silver Spot: London silver's previous closing price was 768.73, up 1.82 (0.24%); Shanghai Silver T + D's previous closing price was 8885.00, down 44.00 (-0.49%). The ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.19 (previous was 7.25). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 86.84 (previous was 86.89). [2] Inventory - Gold Inventory: The上期所gold inventory is 21,456 kg (an increase of 3,000 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX gold inventory is 36,785,583 ounces (a decrease of 262,617.32 ounces from the previous value). [2] - Silver Inventory: The上期所silver inventory is 1,339,746 kg (a decrease of 1,046 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX silver inventory is 499,281,076 ounces (a decrease of 902370 ounces from the previous value). [2] Related Derivatives and Indexes - ETF Holdings: The spdr gold ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value), and the SLV silver ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value). [2] - CFTC Speculators' Net Positions: The CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33486 (an increase of 481 from the previous value), and in gold is 32895 (a decrease of 1451 from the previous value). [2] - Indexes: The US dollar index is 96.9880 (up 0.22% from the previous value), the Standard & Poor's index is 6279.35 (up 0.83%), the US Treasury yield is 4.35 (up 1.16%), the Brent crude oil price is 68.51, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1701 (up 0.12%). [2] Macroeconomic Information - US Trade Policy: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final stage of trade negotiations is at a deadlock, and the next 72 hours will be very busy in trade negotiations. There may be several major announcements in the coming days. 100 smaller countries will get fixed tariff rates. The focus of trade negotiations is on 18 countries that account for 95% of the US trade deficit. The August 1 deadline has been stated in letters to countries, and if no agreement is reached by then, tariffs will return to April levels. [3] - Russian Initiative: Russian President Putin proposed at the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meeting to build an independent settlement and custody system on the BRICS platform and promote the expansion of local currency settlement. [3] - US New Tariff: US President Trump said on July 4 that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, and the new tariffs will "most likely" take effect on August 1. [3]