申银万国期货早间策略-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous consolidation and starting to break upward. It is recommended to go long on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a relatively high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) increased, with the current month rising by 17.40 points (0.44%), the next month by 15.80 points (0.40%), the next quarter by 18.20 points (0.46%), and the far - quarter by 18.20 points (0.47%). The trading volumes were 43,577.00, 3,462.00, 66,892.00, and 12,076.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 8,133.00, 1,295.00, 14,488.00, and 3,143.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the current month rising by 16.40 points (0.61%), the next month by 15.60 points (0.58%), the next quarter by 16.80 points (0.62%), and the far - quarter by 15.80 points (0.59%). The trading volumes were 19,657.00, 2,008.00, 39,517.00, and 5,041.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6,144.00, 476.00, 9,229.00, and 1,249.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with the current month falling by 0.40 points (- 0.01%), the next month by 0.40 points (- 0.01%), the next quarter by 4.80 points (- 0.08%), and the far - quarter by 2.40 points (- 0.04%). The trading volumes were 43,750.00, 3,957.00, 40,420.00, and 11,157.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6,820.00, 1,471.00, 6,230.00, and 1,556.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current month falling by 18.20 points (- 0.29%), the next month by 22.60 points (- 0.36%), the next quarter by 26.40 points (- 0.43%), and the far - quarter by 28.20 points (- 0.47%). The trading volumes were 67,153.00, 5,911.00, 151,899.00, and 25,317.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 8,029.00, 840.00, 16,019.00, and 4,548.00 respectively [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the current value of the IF next - month minus current - month spread was - 19.00 (previous value - 18.60) [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.36%, the SSE 50 index by 0.58%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.48%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indexes also changed [1]. - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy industry increased by 0.54%, the raw materials industry decreased by 0.99%, the industrial industry increased by 0.18%, the optional consumer industry increased by 0.22%, the major consumer industry increased by 0.39%, the medical and health industry increased by 0.15%, the real estate and finance industry increased by 1.25%, the information technology industry decreased by 0.11%, the telecommunications business industry decreased by 0.48%, and the public utilities industry increased by 0.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.64%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.06%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.61% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - Premier Li Qiang will establish the China - BRICS New - Quality Productivity Research Center and set up the BRICS New Industry "Golden Egret" Excellence Scholarship [2]. - The "Procedures for the Administration of Program Trading" of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges came into effect on July 7, 2025, clarifying high - frequency trading standards and making differential regulatory arrangements [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Beisente said that the final stage of trade negotiations is at an impasse, and there may be several major announcements in the next few days. If an agreement is not reached by August 1, tariffs will return to the April level [2]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Shenzhen introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry and set up a 5 - billion - yuan "Semiconductor Industry Private Equity Fund" [2]. - As of now, the cumulative purchase of wheat nationwide has exceeded 50 million tons, and the expected purchase volume of summer grains in the new season is about 100 million tons, with about 85 million tons of wheat [2]. - By the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan. Most REITs products have achieved positive returns this year, and the Jiasheng Wumei Consumption REIT has risen by more than 50%. The industry's leading effect is gradually emerging [2]. - Guangdong issued a guiding opinion on resolving historical legacy issues in real estate registration on state - owned construction land, clarifying registration prohibitions [2].